果鏈耳機雙龍頭大跌均超6%,發生了什麼?
11月16日,A股開盤蘋果核心標的TWS耳機雙龍頭立訊精密、歌爾股份迅速下挫,立訊精密一度大跌超8%,歌爾股份大跌超7%。這也直接帶崩了蘋果產業鏈,整體指數大跌超2%,光韻達、藍思科技、鵬鼎控股紛紛跌幅超5%。

從2019年至今,TWS耳機雙龍頭立訊精密和歌爾股份一直被A股投資者譽為價值投資的標的,在一年的時間兩家公司股價均實現翻倍漲幅。
而且也是各大機構的標配持倉個股,根據數據顯示,與二季度統計結果的對比顯示,立訊精密在三季度成為基金新晉前十大重倉股。有481只基金持有該股,持倉總市值約216億元,較二季度末增長了近77億元。
值得注意的是,基金重倉持股佔立訊精密流通股的股比達15.11%,較二季度末的13.73%進一步提升了1.38個百分點。而歌爾股份也獲社保基金四一六組合買入2541萬股。
那麼此次莫名其妙的大跌,原因在哪?
首先,臨近年底各大機構積極調倉瞄準下一年的一季度的倉位配置,伴隨着經濟復甦的腳步,機構也是着力瞄準順週期品種。從2019年開始的科技結構性牛市行情,立訊精密和歌爾股份均是作為市場龍頭的存在,估值被各大機構推高。
立訊精密靜態PE78,動態PE在58.95,而歌爾股份靜態PE99,動態PE在47.12。所以在機構的風格切換的情況下,一些機構的資金流出去配置其他性價比高的品種。
其次,近期市場有傳聞蘋果準備引入新的TWS耳機生產商。以TWS耳機市場規模來看,近幾年呈現爆發的狀態。
2017年起,AirPods掀起了TWS真無線藍牙耳機市場的浪潮。市場調研機構Counterpoint的數據顯示,2017年、2018年、2019年,TWS耳機出貨量增速為118%、130%、183%,呈現飛速發展狀態。
2019年,全球TWS耳機市場規模已超1.2億。儘管經歷了2020年第一季度的低迷,全球TWS耳機市場隨後快速復甦,第二季度實現增長18%。而中國是增長最快的國家,增速為35%,佔據全球14%的市場份額。
所以作為一條千億的賽道,蘋果還是存在很大可能扶持第三家廠商,早在前期,就有傳聞富士康已承接立訊訂單,而立訊的承接一部分整機代工單子。
值得一提的是,歌爾股份近期的股價走勢非常萎靡,截至到今天已經是7連陰。

很大一部分原因在於子公司分拆上市歌爾微電子分拆上市,這家子公司的主體是MEMS麥克風、scnsor加上SIP封裝,這家公司是偏向於半導體領域。業務佔比銷售額不到10%。其中MEMS產品,歌爾股份的發貨量是全球第九位。
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