農林牧漁行業月度報告：生豬養殖業績加速釋放，建議關注後周期板塊，維持“同步大市”評級
機構：財信證券
評級：同步大市
投資要點：
市場行情回顧：10 月份，農林牧漁（申萬）指數下跌 3.99%，跑輸上證綜指、深證成指、創業板指、中小板指、滬深 300 指數 4.20、6.90、8.53、7.64、5.97 個百分點，在申萬 28 個一級行業指數中排名第 25 位。截止 2020 年 10 月底，農林牧漁板塊 PB（MRQ，整體法）為 3.85 倍，高於全 A 市淨率水平（2.05 倍），位於歷史後 50.30%分位數。
農林牧漁行業三季報點評：生豬養殖業績加速釋放，建議關注後周期板塊。2020Q3，農林牧漁板塊實現營業收入 1912.24 億元，同比增長35.36%，環比增長 16.46%；實現歸母淨利潤 269.39 億元，同比增長83.29%，環比增長 41.77%。分板塊來看，養殖後周期板塊利潤環比增速最快。畜禽養殖、飼料、動物保健板塊 Q3 利潤同比、環比均保持正增長，同比增速分別為 41.65%、51.85%、42.90%，環比增長分別為17.84%、30.05%、31.26%。建議關注飼料龍頭企業海大集團（002311）、動保龍頭企業生物股份（600201）。
建議關注長期賽道優質、消費屬性強、成長空間大的個股。寵物食品板塊：建議關注寵物食品龍頭中寵股份（002891）和佩蒂股份（300673）。冰鮮肉品板塊：建議關注較早佈局屠宰加工、冷鮮銷售的生豬養殖龍頭温氏股份（300498）和區域黃羽雞冰鮮龍頭湘佳股份（002982）。
政策驅動疊加需求增加，建議關注種子板塊。《十九屆五中全會公報》指出，要保障國家糧食安全，提高農業質量效益和競爭力。10 月 27日，農業農村部副部長劉煥鑫表示，“十四五”農業農村發展規劃將重點圍繞高標準農田、現代種業等領域。從政府政策來看，如何提高我國種業水平、種植效率，保障國家糧食安全，依然是種植板塊長期發展的重點。建議關注研發實力雄厚、儲備轉基因技術的種子龍頭企業隆平高科（000998）、大北農（002385）、荃銀高科(300087)、登海種業（002041）。
風險提示：農產品價格風險、自然災害、疫情風險、行業政策風險。
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