《大行报告》中金：MSCI中国指数半年检 料腾讯因权重变动将有逾5亿美元资金流出
阿思达克 11-13 15:10
就MSCI中国指数早前公布半年度指数审议结果，中金发表报告表示，MSCI中国半年度调整新增56只股份、同时剔除49只股份，新纳入权重较大的包括有百济神州ADR、敏实集团(00425.HK)、中国有赞(08083.HK)、思摩尔(06969.HK)、微创医疗(00853.HK)、美东汽车(01268.HK)、泰格医药(03347.HK)、康龙化成(03759.HK)、合生(00754.HK) 及锦欣生殖(01951.HK)等。
该行指，除了成分股调整外，MSCI还调整了12家公司的自由流通因子(FIF， Foreign Inclusion Factor)，如拼多多、小米(01810.HK)、阿里健康(00241.HK)、雅生活服务(03319.HK)、 以及166家公司的纳入股本数，也将因此会对成分股在指数内权重产生变化。
中金测算，受此次MSCI中国指数调整影响，估计百济神州(料被动资金流入6.17亿美元)、拼多多、小米集团、敏实集团(料被动资金流入1.69亿美元)、中国有赞(料被动资金流入1.61亿美元)、思摩尔国际(料被动资金流入1.36亿美元)、微创医疗(料被动资金流入1.36亿美元)、美东汽车(料被动资金流入1.16亿美元)、泰格医药(料被动资金流入1.06亿美元)、阿里健康的权重增加最多，从0.4%到 0.07%不等。
该行表示，相反腾讯控股(00700.HK)(料被动资金流出5.21亿美元)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK))(料被动资金流出4.81亿美元)、美团(03690.HK))(料被动资金流出1.2亿美元)、建设银行(00939.HK))(料被动资金流出9,380万美元)、中国平安(02318.HK)(料被动资金流出8,250万美元)、蔚来汽车(料被动资金流出6,020万美元)、中移动(00941.HK)(料被动资金流出5,130万美元)等因摊薄效应在指数中权重的下降最大。
从交易和调仓角度，还需要结合个股的日均成交情况来判断其具体影响。基於当前1,493亿美元规模(相当於当前MSCI中国指数整体约3万亿美元市值的5%左右)的被动型基金追踪MSCI中国指数的假设，并结合个股各自过去20天的日均成交金额。
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