《大行報告》中金：MSCI中國指數半年檢 料騰訊因權重變動將有逾5億美元資金流出
阿思達克 11-13 15:10
就MSCI中國指數早前公布半年度指數審議結果，中金發表報告表示，MSCI中國半年度調整新增56隻股份、同時剔除49隻股份，新納入權重較大的包括有百濟神州ADR、敏實集團(00425.HK)、中國有贊(08083.HK)、思摩爾(06969.HK)、微創醫療(00853.HK)、美東汽車(01268.HK)、泰格醫藥(03347.HK)、康龍化成(03759.HK)、合生(00754.HK) 及錦欣生殖(01951.HK)等。
該行指，除了成分股調整外，MSCI還調整了12家公司的自由流通因子(FIF， Foreign Inclusion Factor)，如拼多多、小米(01810.HK)、阿里健康(00241.HK)、雅生活服務(03319.HK)、 以及166家公司的納入股本數，也將因此會對成分股在指數內權重產生變化。
中金測算，受此次MSCI中國指數調整影響，估計百濟神州(料被動資金流入6.17億美元)、拼多多、小米集團、敏實集團(料被動資金流入1.69億美元)、中國有贊(料被動資金流入1.61億美元)、思摩爾國際(料被動資金流入1.36億美元)、微創醫療(料被動資金流入1.36億美元)、美東汽車(料被動資金流入1.16億美元)、泰格醫藥(料被動資金流入1.06億美元)、阿里健康的權重增加最多，從0.4%到 0.07%不等。
該行表示，相反騰訊控股(00700.HK)(料被動資金流出5.21億美元)、阿里巴巴(09988.HK))(料被動資金流出4.81億美元)、美團(03690.HK))(料被動資金流出1.2億美元)、建設銀行(00939.HK))(料被動資金流出9,380萬美元)、中國平安(02318.HK)(料被動資金流出8,250萬美元)、蔚來汽車(料被動資金流出6,020萬美元)、中移動(00941.HK)(料被動資金流出5,130萬美元)等因攤薄效應在指數中權重的下降最大。
從交易和調倉角度，還需要結合個股的日均成交情況來判斷其具體影響。基於當前1,493億美元規模(相當於當前MSCI中國指數整體約3萬億美元市值的5%左右)的被動型基金追蹤MSCI中國指數的假設，並結合個股各自過去20天的日均成交金額。
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