香港交易所(00388.HK)：市場交投活躍推動業績創新高，中概股迴歸助IPO保持全球前列，維持“買入”評級，目標價432.2港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：432.2港元
投資要點
我們的觀點：在中國內地和中國香港兩地互聯互通機制不斷完善背景下，港交所將持續發揮其"立足中國、連接全球"的金融橋頭堡作用。我們維持公司"買入"評級，升目標價至432.2港元。2020-2022年，公司目標價對應PE水平分別為49、42和36倍，對應PB水平分別為11.7、11.4和11.0倍。公司目標價較現價有約18.3%的升幅，建議投資者關注。
市場交投活躍度大幅提振推動營收和淨利持續創歷史新高：公司2020前三季實現營業收入140.9億港元，同比上升12.1%，實現主營業務收入126.1億港元，同比增長21.1%；歸屬股東淨利潤85.3億港元，同比上升15.7%。公司主營業務實現大幅上升，主要由於港股市場前三季度市場交投活躍度不斷提升及滬深港通保持強勁增長，帶動交易費用和結算相關費用大幅增加，分別增加58.2%和33.0%。
首先受益於中概股迴歸，IPO保持前列：2020前三季，港股市場IPO數量104家，居全球第4；首發募資額同比增長61.2%，位列全球第3。得益於開放的資本市場、持續改革優化的發行制度、完善的投資者保護機制等，港交所首先受益於中概股迴歸，前三季中概股募資佔比達到48.5%。2020年1月港交所發佈意見徵詢，擬允許法團同股不同權上市，持續優化的上市制度將進一步吸引新經濟企業來港一次或二次上市。優質的公司資產，有望進一步提升市場交投活躍度。
滬深港通強勁增長：2020前三季公司滬深港通相關收入達13.5億港元，同比增長78.6%，再創新高，佔營收比重達到9.6%。北向交易日均成交金額同比增長114%，南向交易日均成交金額同比增長117%。港股通成交金額佔港股總成交金額比重逐年升高，2020前三季已達到新高21.7%，中國內地資金持續影響港股生態。滬深港通的強勁增長是公司現貨分部增長高於市場成交額增長的主要原因之一。
MSCI合約交易未來可期。7、8月MSCI衍生品合約陸續推出以來，截止9月30日共已錄得12.6萬張成交量，其中兩隻台灣合約最為活躍。此外，港交所獲得美國商品期貨交易委員會批註，可於美國境內銷售28只MSCI合約，隨近未來新加坡的相關合約陸續停止展期，交易活動轉向香港，港交所MSCI交易有望快速增長，未來可期。
風險提示：滬港股通交易增長不及預期；中概股赴港二次上市不及預期；疫情持續對各項業務造成的負面影響超預期
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