華虹半導體(01347.HK):受益8英寸緊缺,然折舊加大為主要邏輯,維持“持有”評級,目標價33.3港元
機構:廣發證券
評級:持有
目標價:33.3港元
核心觀點:
3Q淨利潤低於預期,4Q指引符合預期。公司於11/10日披露3Q20業績:收入($253mn)優於預期($239mn),毛利率(24.2%)符合預期(23.9%),然歸母淨利潤($18mn)低於預期($24mn)。此外,4Q收入指引($269mn)略超預期($258mn),毛利率指引(21%-23%)符合預期(22.6%)。
8英寸滿載,12英寸穩步爬坡。公司3Q20收入絕對值環比增長$28mn,其中8英寸廠貢獻$20mn,主要來自產能利用率提升(3座8寸廠已連續3個季度無新增產能),其餘$8mn來自無錫廠產能爬坡(由2Q的10k/m提升至3Q的14k/m)及產能利用率提升。
看好21年8英寸持續景氣,然公司折舊加大為核心壓力。本輪8英寸景氣上行核心邏輯與上一輪(3Q16-2Q18)背景相似,皆因需求回暖下產業並無明顯新增產能所致,鑑於21年下游需求大概率將呈低基數效應下的復甦基調(智能機、汽車等),我們認為8英寸緊缺將會持續加劇。公司雖可充分受益8英寸景氣持續上行,然無錫新廠產能持續爬坡帶來的折舊加大將是公司的核心壓力。
新廠折舊壓力仍在初步反應階段,維持“持有”評級。無錫廠產能擴充空間仍大(當前產能14k/m,按規劃將擴充至40k/m),我們繼續維持“無錫12英寸廠房產能爬坡帶來的折舊將對公司中期盈利產生持續壓制且仍在初步反應階段”的判斷。我們預測公司20/21年歸母淨利潤分別為0.85/0.50億美元。我們繼續以2.4倍PB(對應20末歸母淨資產)作為公司合理價值判斷的基礎。綜上,公司合理價值為33.3港元/股,維持“持有”評級。
風險提示。全球宏觀不及預期的風險,無錫廠折舊政策不確定性風險。

Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.