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渣打料拜登勝選煞停中美關係惡化惟激烈競爭持續 明年上半年人幣升見6.3
阿思達克 11-13 11:51
渣打銀行中國宏觀策略部主管劉潔發表報告,指拜登勝出美國總統大選,料可煞停中美關係急速惡化,及在有共同利益的範疇上有望重新有限度合作。激進及軍事衝突的風險放緩。不過,要撤回過去舉措的阻力則甚大,經修訂的世貿(WTO)框架或用於解決貿易爭議;該行料雙邊關稅料維持至最快新一階段中美貿易協議達成。中美激烈競爭未來數年料持續,中國現時國內生產總值(GDP)相當於美國的約70%,在拜登首屆任期結束時料升至介乎85%至90%。

報告料事故風險放緩將有利人民幣更好反映基本面。對北京而言,人民幣進一步升值是可以容忍,人行近期措施旨在減慢人民幣升值速度,而不是扭轉升值勢頭。中國出口貨被徵高關稅的負面影響放緩。但拜登勝選後人民幣急升或預支了未來動力,致短期升值速度放緩。

渣打下調2020至2025年美元/人民幣預測,以反映中國較其他新興市場國家相對節制的貨幣政策。在中國回復增長、利率溢價、強勁貿易盈餘及資本流入下,料明年上半年人民幣將升見6.3兌一美元。該行料明年下半年人民幣將回落至6.45兌一美元,反映中國經濟復甦勢頭放緩預期。該行公平值分析料長期美元/人民幣公平值在2022至2025年間介乎6.5至6.7水平。

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