建銀國際：重申正榮地產(06158.HK)跑贏大市的評級，目標價5.63港元
機構：建銀國際
評級：跑贏大市
目標價：5.63港元
線上項目反向路演的亮點
Ø 線上反向路演覆蓋了98％的正榮的土地儲備Ø 在確定的市場條件和公司策略下擁有良好的土地儲備定位Ø 保持一致的策略是重估的關鍵
線上反向路演的亮點：正榮在近期舉辦了一個線上反向路演，覆蓋了其大部分地區主要的項目，包括長三角地區的南京、宿遷、上海、蘇州、合肥和阜陽；海峽西岸的泉州、莆田、福州和南昌；中西部地區的武漢、長沙、成都、重慶、西安和鄭州；以及環渤海地區的天津。這些地區佔正榮地產截至2020年6月底的98％的土儲。長三角地區的房地產市場通常比其他地區更繁榮。儘管上海作為一線城市擁有最嚴格的房地產政策，但整體市場正在復甦；二線城市如南京、蘇州、合肥等正在享受經濟的強勁增長和人口流入的紅利，即便是三線城市如宿遷，阜陽等也得到了良好的人口流入和相對寬鬆的政策支持。海峽西岸作為正榮的大本營，具有更高的運營效率和更好的品牌效益，讓正榮可以實施快速資產週轉策略。中西部地區的房地產市場更加多樣化，其中武漢和南昌繼新冠疫情爆發後先經歷市場急速反彈再到現在稍有回落 ;而成都和重慶保持相對穩定；而在西安和鄭州，儘管土地市場略有過熱，該等城市在2019年在價格和銷售量方面的表現都優於大市，而近期則稍有回落。最後，鑑於四季度為傳統銷售淡季，天津整體市場表現較為一般。
良好的土地儲備定位：從正榮的土地儲備來看，我們認為正榮的土儲位置相對理想，其權益土儲中有約33％和19％位於長三角和海峽西岸，兩者都是繁榮且公司熟悉的市場。同時，西部和環渤海地區僅佔正榮權益土儲的8％和8％，反映了正榮的審慎的土地儲備策略。除了土地儲備之外，正榮在2020年首十個月的合約銷售約為人民幣1,100億元，同比增長7％，完成其2020年銷售目標的約79％，我們認為公司基本上是在正確軌道上的。我們認為正榮穩定的合約銷售，土地儲備和財務策略是重估的關鍵因素。我們重申跑贏大市的評級，將該股目標價格定為港幣5.63元。
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