《大行報告》大和一舉降東風集團(00489.HK)評級至「沽售」 目標價則升至7.3元
大和發表報告,一舉降東風集團(00489.HK)投資評級,由「跑贏大市」連降三級至「沽售」,目標價則由5.9元升至7.3元。報告稱,本月至今東風集團股價累升約60%,主因潛在今年A股上市;A股上市價高可料帶動H股,收窄AH價差;市場對其新VOYAH品牌的憧憬及潛在分拆;以及承諾提高派息比率。不過,該行認為股價升幅屬過度。
該行預期東風A股上市可觸發H股上升,因A股料以不低於市帳率1倍估值上市,不過,不預期股價可長久維持,自7月27日宣布潛在A股上市後,H股已升14%,但在10月初回落約20%。AH價差亦未必會收窄,同業長汽(02333.HK)、廣汽(02238.HK)AH價差仍闊,該行預期出現A股以高溢價上市,但H股股價低企的情境機會大。
此外,大和對東風集團今年新開拓電動車品牌VOYAH維持審慎看法。因為高端智能汽車/電動車市場更趨激烈,另許多本地品牌亦設立智能汽車/電動車平台。該行不預期每電動車平台均會成功,對東風集團在高端板塊所面對挑戰感憂慮。如果VOYAH產生虧損,料為在自家品牌外對東風集團盈利的另一打擊。
該行上調東風集團2020至2021年收入預測介乎4%至5%,並指即使東風集團承諾A股上市後三年內,派息比率將升至不低於40%,大和認為有利投資情緒,但不認為汽車股屬「收息類」投資者所偏好,因為預期集團未必可獲進一步估值重評。
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