中汇集团(00382.HK)：增长稳健，预计FY20-FY23E净利润复合增长24%，给予“买入”评级，目标价7.60港元
机构：中泰证券
评级：买入
目标价：7.60港元
FY20净利润增长34.7%，符合预期
中汇FY20收入8.0亿元人民币，同比增长13.6%，包括因疫情退还3,500人民币万住宿费。期内毛利率49.5%，比去年提升0.9百分点。运营开支与去年同期持平，但运营利润率提升1个百分点，至40.5%。中汇FY20净利润2.9亿元人民币，同比增加34.7%。剔除非运营开支后的调整净利润3.1亿人民币。FY20净利润率从FY19的30.7%扩大至36.4%。业绩期内，中汇的总在校生人数3.5万人（华商学院2.4万，华商职业学院1.1万人），相比上年增加2,410人。期内带息贷款增至7.5亿元人民币，公司仍然维持净现金状态，公布派发末期股息港元0.049，全年派息率30%。
新校区建设和转设进程顺利：
新校区建设和转设进程顺利FY21E，公司增长有如下催化剂：1）华商学院的转设正待教育部审查，预计2020年底前公布。转设后管理费开支将逐年递减，有利提升毛利率。我们预计FY21E毛利率50.4%。转设完成后，学额有望得到增加；2）四会校区第一期已经投入使用，使集团的现有总容量超过40,000学生。后续江门校区第一期，及四会第二期先后投入运营，预计到2022年集团总容量将提升至超过60,000人，内生增长有足够容量空间；3）政府鼓励职业教育，学校容量得到扩充后，集团将加大非全日制学历/非学历的课程，丰富办学层次和收入来源。
FY21E净利润增长15.5%；维持“买入”评级
我们下调FY21E收入3.5%，上调毛利率至50.4%，净利润轻微下调1.0%。我们看好中汇在大湾区内打造精品商学院和开拓国际市场的策略，以及坚持高质量办学，向企业输送高标准人才的理念。预计FY20-FY23E净利润复合增长24.4%。中汇现时对应估值为14.3倍FY21E市盈率，我们维持目标20倍FY21E市盈率，目标价轻微调整至港元7.60。维持“买入”评级。
投资风险
1）并购学校执行风险；2）民办教育政策风险；3）招生人数低于预期。
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