中彙集團(00382.HK)：增長穩健，預計FY20-FY23E淨利潤複合增長24%，給予“買入”評級，目標價7.60港元
機構：中泰證券
評級：買入
目標價：7.60港元
FY20淨利潤增長34.7%，符合預期
中匯FY20收入8.0億元人民幣，同比增長13.6%，包括因疫情退還3,500人民幣萬住宿費。期內毛利率49.5%，比去年提升0.9百分點。運營開支與去年同期持平，但運營利潤率提升1個百分點，至40.5%。中匯FY20淨利潤2.9億元人民幣，同比增加34.7%。剔除非運營開支後的調整淨利潤3.1億人民幣。FY20淨利潤率從FY19的30.7%擴大至36.4%。業績期內，中匯的總在校生人數3.5萬人（華商學院2.4萬，華商職業學院1.1萬人），相比上年增加2,410人。期內帶息貸款增至7.5億元人民幣，公司仍然維持淨現金狀態，公佈派發末期股息港元0.049，全年派息率30%。
新校區建設和轉設進程順利：
新校區建設和轉設進程順利FY21E，公司增長有如下催化劑：1）華商學院的轉設正待教育部審查，預計2020年底前公佈。轉設後管理費開支將逐年遞減，有利提升毛利率。我們預計FY21E毛利率50.4%。轉設完成後，學額有望得到增加；2）四會校區第一期已經投入使用，使集團的現有總容量超過40,000學生。後續江門校區第一期，及四會第二期先後投入運營，預計到2022年集團總容量將提升至超過60,000人，內生增長有足夠容量空間；3）政府鼓勵職業教育，學校容量得到擴充後，集團將加大非全日制學歷/非學歷的課程，豐富辦學層次和收入來源。
FY21E淨利潤增長15.5%；維持“買入”評級
我們下調FY21E收入3.5%，上調毛利率至50.4%，淨利潤輕微下調1.0%。我們看好中匯在大灣區內打造精品商學院和開拓國際市場的策略，以及堅持高質量辦學，向企業輸送高標準人才的理念。預計FY20-FY23E淨利潤複合增長24.4%。中匯現時對應估值為14.3倍FY21E市盈率，我們維持目標20倍FY21E市盈率，目標價輕微調整至港元7.60。維持“買入”評級。
投資風險
1）併購學校執行風險；2）民辦教育政策風險；3）招生人數低於預期。
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