通信行業2020年三季度財報綜述：Q3營收增速放緩，聚焦高景氣度細分賽道，維持“強大於市”行業評級
機構：萬聯證券
評級：強大於市
行業核心觀點：
受到今年疫情與中美貿易摩擦的雙重影響，通信行業前三季度營收同比微增，利潤微降，基金持倉整體處於低位，光模塊，雲計算，物聯網子賽道表現搶眼，值得關注。
投資要點：
三季度行業整體營收增速放緩，費用率持續優化。2020Q3營業收入為1769億元，同比增長7.47%，環比縮減1.58%；去除中興通訊以及中國聯通的數據之後，2020Q3營業收入750億元，同比增長4.17%,環比下跌3.16%。行業淨利率與毛利率均有所上升，管理與銷售用率均處於較低區間，財務費用率受匯率影響短暫上升，研發費用穩重有升。我們認為隨着疫情影響逐步消除，通信行業Q2整體改善明顯。
2020Q3通信行業基金持倉創近年新低，光模塊領域關注度較高。通信板塊自2019Q25G牌照發放後起一直處於低配格局，2020Q1倉位隨着5G新基建的開展短暫上升後，2020Q2再次回到2020Q1前的低配格局，受中美貿易摩擦影響，2020Q3倉位創近年來新低。從個股角度來看，光模塊領域受關注度較高，其中業績有支撐的優質個股加倉明顯。
聚焦高景氣度細分賽道，關注未來市場空間。光通信設備以及雲計算板塊依舊持續上半年亮眼表現，考慮到5G帶動全球數據流量呈指數級提升，以及北美雲商資本開支的逐步增加，我們預計隨着數據中心建設進入加速發展時期。並且隨着數字化轉型的推進，互聯網、交通物流、政務、金融等多個板塊反哺雲市場，紛紛積極引入雲計算進行轉型升級，光模塊和IDC對應的子賽道景氣度持續提升。物聯網板塊增速有所下滑，但長期高成長性預期不變。隨着5G以及NB-IoT基站的逐步建設，物聯網下游將呈現井噴式發展，萬物互聯時代即將到來，看好蜂窩通信模塊子賽道的未來發展。
外部不確定性較大，謹慎看好通信板塊未來走勢。截至今年9月底，我國累計建設5G基站數量已達到69萬個，全年目標已提前完成，留給四季度的空間並不大。並且由於中美貿易摩擦的不斷增加以及歐洲疫情的第二波爆發，行業整體的不確定性上升，謹慎看好通信板塊第四季度的投資機會。
風險提示：中美貿易摩擦的不確定性，5G建設程度及滲透速度不達預期，疫情反覆導致全球經濟環境惡化超過預期。
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