You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
計算機行業車聯網:商用車有望落地重磅新政策,智能網聯迎來量價齊升,給予“增持”行業評級
格隆匯 11-11 10:38

機構:華安證券

評級:增持

事件回顧

2020年11月3日,為深入貫徹落實黨中央和國務院關於進一步深化“放管服”改革的部署要求,有效提升道路運輸管理服務質量和水平,優化營商環境,交通部起草了《道路運輸條例(修訂草案徵求意見稿)》,現向社會公開徵求意見,意見反饋截止時間為2020年12月2日。

意見稿要求加裝智能網聯設備,重卡存量約700萬,每年新增120多萬。政策要求12噸以上的載貨車輛應當按照有關規定配備具有行駛記錄功能的衞星定位裝置和智能視頻監控裝置,並接入符合標準的監控平台。道路運輸經營者應當採取技術措施防止疲勞駕駛。我們認為,樂觀估計政策明年上半年正式落地,後裝上半年開始啟動,前裝下半年進入規模化安裝。12噸以上重卡目前國內存量在700萬輛左右,2019年新增117萬輛,2020年有望突破160萬輛,未來幾年基本會保持在每年新增120萬輛以上,市場空間大。

利用技術手段強化主動安全,新增智能網聯設備單車價值量約1800元。主動安全是商用車智能網聯驅動力,商用車智能終端以智能監控和ADAS為代表。從單車價值上來看,帶有行駛記錄功能的衞星定位裝置約為800元左右;智能視頻監控裝置,假設是安裝DSM和BSD,約1000元,總計在1800元左右。我們認為,重申在《從信息化邁向智能化,商用車車聯網龍頭》報告中的推薦邏輯:從信息化到智能化,商用車車聯網有望迎來量價齊升。後續隨着車型和應用場景的不斷擴大,智能網聯在商用車領域會維持高景氣。

“雲-管-端”融合,推薦關注雲控平台和信息服務投資價值。

雲端軟件起到對車輛提供信息服務和支持,整個系統優化和管理的作用。我們認為,雲平台主要以滿足政府監管和提供信息服務的第三方運營平台為主。當前雲端建設正在逐漸完善,附加價值開發才剛剛開始,但其已經展現出潛力。例如:1)四維圖新子公司中寰衞星的營業收入近幾年來呈現出加速增長的發展態勢,去年增速超過50%。2)中交興路(千方集團投資)已經接入超520萬以上貨運車輛信息,建立全國道路貨運總平台。為政府提供監管服務,為貨運企業提供平台信息服務,並且結合相關場景提供金融服務。

投資建議

長期來看,國家積極推進大數據、信息技術、自動駕駛等技術在道路運輸領域的發展和應用,商用車智能網聯景氣度高。重點推薦:鋭明技術、鴻泉物聯,建議關注:千方科技、四維圖新、海康威視。

風險提示

1)車聯網技術進展不及預期;2)政策推進不及預期。

Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account