石油與天然氣：中美貿易形勢緩和下受益的石化產業環節，維持“增持”行業評級
機構：國泰君安
評級：增持
本報告導讀：
拜登勝選預計將使中美貿易關係緩和以及加劇原油價格短期的波動性，短期可能利好紡織服裝產業鏈及輕烴進口。長期來看拜登當選對原油價格形成利空。
摘要：
投資建議：維持行業的增持評級。拜登勝選可能導致貿易出現緩和方向，我們認為主要利好紡織服裝產業鏈及輕烴進口產業環節。我們認為紡織服裝產業鏈環節2021年將受益於疫苗落地後的疫情緩解，經濟復甦；以及油價上漲和貿易緩和帶來的邊際改善；推薦桐昆股份（601233）及新鳳鳴（603225）。油價上行及貿易緩和有利於進口輕質化原料路線的項目，推薦衞星石化(002648)。
拜登勝選預計將使中美貿易關係緩和，對華關税可能取消。根據國泰君安宏觀團隊的觀點，建制派拜登大概率緩和中美經貿領域矛盾。拜登可能取消對華關税的深層原因在於維護民主黨州利益。若取消關税，2000億美元關税清單對應的低技術產品最為受益，包括紡服產品。
拜登當選對原油價格長期形成利空，但在沒有放鬆伊朗和委內瑞拉制裁的情況下中期將導致原油價格上行。我們認為拜登勝選將增加原油價格短期的波動率。根據國泰君安宏觀團隊的判斷，拜登就任總統後首先將致力於緩和與盟國的關係等，伊朗和委內瑞拉的制裁放鬆時間點可能會出現在2021年底。我們判斷，由於拜登勝選原油價格短期波動率增加，2021年上半年價格中樞將向上，而拜登2021年底對伊朗及委內瑞拉制裁放鬆的可能性及支持新能源的政策來看對原油價格將是利空。
我們預計2021年原油價格中樞將較40美元/桶布倫特原油抬升，石化板塊估值改善。①我們認為美國總統大選落地後，長期來看政策不確定性下降，財政刺激方案如果通過，流動性將有所改善。②儘管全球疫情二次反彈，但預計我國疫苗批文落地後需求預期將有所改善。③OPEC+託底原油價格的意願及④全球流動性偏寬鬆環境將帶動2021年原油價格出現温和復甦，從而使石化板塊整體估值改善。
風險提示：疫情發展超預期，且疫苗研發無法落地；全球化倒退，貿易形勢惡化；原油價格超預期下跌。
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