德琪醫藥-B(06996.HK)新股報告:核心產品ATG-010具備巨大未被滿足醫療需求,商業化後市場潛力可觀,給予“申購”評級
機構:中泰證券
評級:申購
公司簡介
德琪醫藥是一家專注於創新抗腫瘤藥物的亞太地區臨牀階段生物製藥公司,目前已建立12條具有創新性的臨牀及臨牀前產品研發管線,其中包括兩款核心產品:治療復發/難治性多發性骨髓瘤、復發/難治性瀰漫大B細胞淋巴瘤的ATG-010(selinexor)和治療HCC和NSCLC等多種適應症的ATG-008(onatasertib)。此外在此次招股前,公司共完成3輪融資,累積金額約2.4億美元。
中泰觀點
核心產品ATG-010具備巨大未被滿足醫療需求,商業化後市場潛力可觀:公司的核心產品之一ATG-010(selinexor)是一款同類首款及唯一的抑制核輸出蛋白XPO1的SINE化合物,可促使腫瘤抑制蛋白在細胞核內積累,選擇性誘導癌細胞雕亡。ATG-010(selinexor)是低給藥頻率的口服藥,相比於現有的治療方案,服藥便利,大大提高了治療依從性。目前由於缺乏適宜的治療方案(尤其在後期治療中),中國多發性骨髓瘤患者的治療滲透率和五年生存率遠低於發達國家。鑑於多發性骨髓瘤仍然無法治癒、複發率及難治率很高,且患者餘生都要接受後續治療,復發/難治性多發性骨髓瘤市場是多發性骨髓瘤市場中一個重要且不斷增長的部分。根據弗若斯特沙利文數據,2019年中國多發性骨髓瘤患者10萬例,預計2024年增長至約16.7萬例,年複合增長率10.4%,同年市場規模預計將達到人民幣147億元。2019年中國DLBCL患者已有19.9萬例,預計到2024年約25.1萬例,年複合增長率4.7%,2024年市場規模預計達到人民幣186億元。此外ATG-010(selinexor)正在中國進行兩個II期註冊臨牀試驗評估,且已獲FDA有條件加速批准,並經授權合作伙伴Karyopharm在美國以XPOVIO品牌實施商業化。
經營業績方面:2018、2019財年及2020年前6個月,公司產生虧損分別為1.5億元、3.2億元及5.4億元;研發開支分別為1.2億元、1.2億元及1.7億元;經營現金淨額流出分別為1.1億元、1.2億元及1.4億元。
估值方面:按全球公開發售後的6.7億股本計算,公司市值為106-121億港元。由於公司尚未盈利,不適用PE估值法。此次穩價人是高盛,今年共計10個項目,首日表現7漲3跌。基石方面,引入GIC、高瓴、黑石等10家投資者,合計認購1.8億美元。我們認為公司的核心產品ATG-010具備巨大未被滿足醫療需求,商業化後市場潛力可觀,綜上所述給予其72分,評級為“申購”。
風險提示:(1)市場競爭風險、(2)公司處於虧損中,收入尚不穩定、(3)研發進度不及預期、結果不確定
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