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瑞银汪涛:拜登当选 中国或重新开展贸易谈判
阿思达克 11-10 11:03
瑞银亚洲经济研究主管暨首席中国经济学家汪涛表示,市场预测拜登胜出本次总统选举,认为中国可能会倾向与美国重新开展贸易谈判,明年中美之间将更为积极地沟通交流,但在明年底或者後年之前,未必会达成新的贸易协定,在达成共识之前美国亦不会调降或者取消目前对华加徵的关税。

他认为,在未来两个月新一届美国政府上任前,仍存在现届美国政府再出台一些针对中国的措施的风险,认为某些措施在新一届政府就职後难以逆转,此或对市场及人民币带来短期压力。

瑞银预计,明年中国GDP增速可能反弹至7.5%。国内消费有望大幅反弹,短期内中美关系存在较大的不确定性,导致短期内人民币汇率贬值,明年底人民币对美元汇率预测约为6.5,汇率的波动范围可能更大,突破6.5可能会时有发生。

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