植耀輝: 疫情現曙光美股個別發展 舊經濟股有望翻身
才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,美股隔晚(9日)受疫苗研究有重大進展下急升,道指及標普500指數升至歷史新高,不過納指卻下跌超過1.5%。藥廠輝瑞(PFE.US)與BioNTech(BNTX.US)研發之疫苗對預防病毒效性高達90%,消息利好金融市場,歐美股市大升之餘,舊經濟股如金融及航空股更出現報復式反彈,當中美國運通(AXP.US)大升21%,波音(BA.US)及JP Morgan(JPM.US)升幅超過13%。相反科技股跌幅顯著,Zoom(ZM.US)股價大跌17%,Peloton(PTON.US)更大跌超過20%。
港股方面,昨日表現亦相當理想,在騰訊(00700.HK)及友邦(01299.HK)相繼造好下,恆指繼上周突破250天線25,400點水平後,更企穩26,000點收市。只是近期港股走勢實在過於亢奮,雖然本輪上升有更多可能是憧憬中美關係有望得到改善,個股如中芯(00981.HK)及中興(00763.HK)等急升便受惠此原因;只是筆者認為美中關係雖可能有所改善,但卻不會有重大改變,所以有關憧憬可能很快便告一段落。何況相關股份升幅實在驚人。以中興為例,其股價本月已急升超過三成!所以此時還考慮追貨始終值博率不高。當然,疫苗研究出現突破將利好大市氣氛,特別是傳統舊經濟股今日或會有強勁反彈,不過科技股則可能會限制大市升幅。除此以外短期走勢仍會受美國最新局勢左右,另外本周四(12日)騰訊亦會公布季績,表現亦會對港股有一定啟示。加上港股短期升幅實在不少,故亦不宜過於進取矣!
股份方面,近日友邦股價急升,主要是該公司宣布,友邦中國獲中銀保監批准在四川籌建分公司,對公司而言是一大利好。事實上,以今年9月中國保費收入排名計,四川保費收入排名第六,排名較北京更高一級,反映當地發展空間仍大,故在消息公布後股價急升有其道理。此外,其最新公布之第三季業績表現,截至9月底止三個月新業務價值下跌28%,與市場預期相若;新業務價值利潤率雖然按年下跌15.4個百分點,不過按季則基本持平。由於業務初步見有改善,加上新增四川營業點,預期明年內地業務將有更佳表現,建議可待回落至78元吸納,一年目標價上望90元。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~
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