汽車行業：10月乘用車批發同比＋9％，兑現“金九銀十“
機構：天風證券
評級：行大於市
事件：
11月9日,乘聯會發布數據：10月乘用車批發銷量207.2萬輛，同比增長8.8%，環比增長0.5%；零售銷量199.2萬輛，同比增長8.1%，環比增長4.3%；新能源乘用車批發銷量14.4萬輛，同比增長118.2%，環比增長15.2%。
點評：
10月乘用車零售同比+8%，行業穩步回暖。10月乘用車零售銷量199.2萬輛，同比增長8.0%，實現了連續4個月8%左右的近兩年高位增速；環比增長4.1%。今年1-10月的零售累計增速-10.2%，較1-9月累計增速提升2個百分點；1月至9月乘用車零售銷量同比增速分別為-21%、-79%、-40%、-6%、+2%、-6%、+8%、+9%、+7%和+8%，呈現疫情後穩步回暖態勢。
豪華車市場高景氣，自主龍頭表現強勢。分品牌看，（1）10月豪華車零售同比增長約30%，環比下降6%，消費升級的高端換購需求仍然旺盛，但10月供給不足導致寶馬奔馳等生產低於零售較多，暫時抑制了零售的增長。（2）10月主流合資品牌零售同比增長6%，環比增長1%。（3）10月自主品牌零售同比增長6%，環比增長14%；其中頭部自主品牌如長城、廣汽自主、長安自主10月銷量同比增速分別為17.9%、+28.2%、+42.1%，顯示龍頭份額進一步提升。
新能源汽車銷量倍增，各品牌多點發力。10月新能源乘用車批發銷量14.4萬輛，同比增長118.2%，環比增長15.2%；其中純電動批發銷量12.1萬輛，同比增長137%。10月新能源乘用車銷量突破萬輛的企業有上汽通用五菱3.0萬輛、比亞迪2.2萬輛、上汽乘用車1.3萬輛、特斯拉中國1.2萬輛，蔚來、理想、威馬、小鵬、合眾、零跑等新勢力車企表現同樣優秀。伴隨北京增加放號2萬張新能源車指標、上海外牌“限行”升級，以及電動車新品性能普遍增強，年末新能源車市有望迎來全面發力的增長期。
“金九銀十”持續兑現，去庫結束，迎接加庫週期。二季度以來，隨疫情影響減弱，消費者購車需求恢復較快，推動零售逐月走強，而目前廠家產銷相對穩健，渠道庫存仍處於較低水平，金九銀十產銷回升有助於庫存結構進一步優化，冬季庫存儲備的加庫存週期也將拉動廠商批發增量，我們看好年末車市延續復甦態勢。
投資建議：根據天風汽車投資時鐘，行業已進入第三階段—銷量和庫存雙升的成長階段，堅定看好高成長屬性的整車和零部件標的。（1）整車方面，建議關注內需復甦的主機廠【廣汽集團（A/H）、長安汽車、、吉利汽車（H）、長城汽車（A/H）、上汽集團】；（2）零部件方面，建議關注估值較低、業績增長穩健的【常熟汽飾、天潤工業、岱美股份、威孚高科、福耀玻璃、華域汽車、濰柴動力】；以及業務稀缺、成長空間大的【拓普集團、道通科技、中鼎股份、科博達、愛柯迪、銀輪股份、精鍛科技、敏實集團】等。
風險提示：疫情反覆導致汽車行業景氣回暖不及預期，汽車消費刺激政策落地效果不及預期。
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