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植耀辉: 疫情现曙光美股个别发展 旧经济股有望翻身
阿思达克 11-10 11:07
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,美股隔晚(9日)受疫苗研究有重大进展下急升,道指及标普500指数升至历史新高,不过纳指却下跌超过1.5%。药厂辉瑞(PFE.US)与BioNTech(BNTX.US)研发之疫苗对预防病毒效性高达90%,消息利好金融市场,欧美股市大升之余,旧经济股如金融及航空股更出现报复式反弹,当中美国运通(AXP.US)大升21%,波音(BA.US)及JP Morgan(JPM.US)升幅超过13%。相反科技股跌幅显着,Zoom(ZM.US)股价大跌17%,Peloton(PTON.US)更大跌超过20%。

港股方面,昨日表现亦相当理想,在腾讯(00700.HK)及友邦(01299.HK)相继造好下,恒指继上周突破250天线25,400点水平後,更企稳26,000点收市。只是近期港股走势实在过於亢奋,虽然本轮上升有更多可能是憧憬中美关系有望得到改善,个股如中芯(00981.HK)及中兴(00763.HK)等急升便受惠此原因;只是笔者认为美中关系虽可能有所改善,但却不会有重大改变,所以有关憧憬可能很快便告一段落。何况相关股份升幅实在惊人。以中兴为例,其股价本月已急升超过三成!所以此时还考虑追货始终值博率不高。当然,疫苗研究出现突破将利好大市气氛,特别是传统旧经济股今日或会有强劲反弹,不过科技股则可能会限制大市升幅。除此以外短期走势仍会受美国最新局势左右,另外本周四(12日)腾讯亦会公布季绩,表现亦会对港股有一定启示。加上港股短期升幅实在不少,故亦不宜过於进取矣!

股份方面,近日友邦股价急升,主要是该公司宣布,友邦中国获中银保监批准在四川筹建分公司,对公司而言是一大利好。事实上,以今年9月中国保费收入排名计,四川保费收入排名第六,排名较北京更高一级,反映当地发展空间仍大,故在消息公布後股价急升有其道理。此外,其最新公布之第三季业绩表现,截至9月底止三个月新业务价值下跌28%,与市场预期相若;新业务价值利润率虽然按年下跌15.4个百分点,不过按季则基本持平。由於业务初步见有改善,加上新增四川营业点,预期明年内地业务将有更佳表现,建议可待回落至78元吸纳,一年目标价上望90元。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~

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