閲文集團(00772.HK)：捋順組織結構，IP開發從供給型轉向需求型，維持“買入”評級
機構：國金證券
評級：買入
基本結論
發佈會進一步捋順IP開發組織結構，影視劇生產將走向需求拉動型。1）騰訊影業主控主投，影視劇生產從供給型轉為需求拉動型。影視劇的生產要素逐步向平台靠攏。影視劇的生產逐步從由影視公司決定（即供給型），轉為由平台決定（即需求拉動型）。10月19日聯合發佈會，明確了三家公司的分工及定位，即騰訊影業主控項目、閲文通過與外部合作的方式推進IP改編，新麗執行內部項目，更加確立了騰訊影業的樞紐地位，閲文和新麗影視劇的生產將走向需求拉動型。2）轉為需求拉動型以後，產能將會有一個較大的提升。目前供給端和需求端仍存在較大產能空間，且閲文充足的IP儲備給增加產能提供了保障。同時，如果愛奇藝與騰訊合併，兩家平台的採購成本將節省50%左右，將對閲文和新麗的產能起到較大的拉動。
對標漫威，我們可以發現此次閲文的組織變革與它們成功的組織變革，有相似之處。漫威設立創意委員會，加速IP商業化開發；閲文設立創作委員會，助推影視業務發展。漫威電影的發展分為三個階段，在第二階段時成立了創意委員會，成功開發《復仇者聯盟1》。而閲文此次同樣針對影視業務設立創作委員會，並由程武和曹華益擔任聯席主席，未來有望進一步促進騰訊與閲文的協同作用，加速IP開發。
從作品、人才團隊方面，追蹤此次組織架構改革成果。1）作品方面，我們認為當改革出現成效時，三家公司的備案作品中閲文IP的數量應該明顯提升。2）人才方面，關注閲文目前的團隊以及未來合作團隊。
投資建議
我們預計從“供給驅動”轉為“需求拉動”後，閲文和新麗影視劇的產能將進一步得到提升，從而對利潤起到較大拉動作用。由於新麗傳媒業績未達預期，計提商譽減值，我們將2020/2021/2022年盈利預測分別下調308.39%/20.04%/2.57%，預計2020/2021/2022年歸母淨利潤為-25.97/12.17/16.27億元，對應P/E分別為-26.26X/56.04X/41.92X，對應EPS分別為-2.56/1.20/1.60元，維持“買入”評級。
風險提示
發行審批的政策風險；IP改編效果不及預期；與騰訊整合速度不及預期；作家流失風險。
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