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榮昌生物-B(09995.HK):立足中國創新全球,生物新藥先行者,給予“買入”評級,目標價79.50港元
格隆匯 11-10 09:38

機構:國金證券

評級:買入

目標價:79.50港元

基本結論

?國際領先的創新型生物醫藥公司,研發及管理團隊經驗豐富。公司2008年

成立,主要從事高端創新藥研發,其研發及管理團隊均具有豐富的醫藥行業

經驗。公司聯合創始人、董事長王威東擁有25年製藥領域的創業、運營及

管理經驗;聯合創始人、CEO、CTO房健民博士有豐富的藥品從研發到商

業化經驗,曾成功研發上市藥品康柏西普,為公司核心產品泰它西普發明

人;首席醫學官何如意博士曾在美國FDA及中國藥監局工作近20年,擁有

豐富的藥品臨牀開發及監管經驗。

?在研管線覆蓋抗腫瘤、自身免疫、眼科等領域:抗腫瘤領域:Her2-ADC

RC48同時具有Her2單抗靶向性優勢及小分子化藥的細胞毒優勢,在胃

癌、尿路上皮癌、乳腺癌等多個領域已顯示出有效性,且安全性優於FDA

已批准的同類產品DS-8201A。胃癌適應症已遞交NDA,預計明年獲批,有

望成為首個上市的國產Her2-ADC藥物。自免領域:泰它西普用於系統性紅

斑狼瘡治療已遞交NDA,預計明年獲批,臨牀效果潛在優於已上市產品貝利木單抗;在類風濕關節炎領域泰它西普已顯示出安全性和有效性;IgA腎

炎等多種適應症目前國內尚無產品上市,泰它西普將進一步滿足臨牀需求。

?ADC、雙抗、抗體融合蛋白三大創新平台高效助力研發。ADC藥物、雙抗

藥物、抗體融合蛋白藥物為高技術壁壘產品。公司有基於Thiel-bridge技術

的ADC藥物研發平台,Hibody雙抗平台及三位一體的抗體融合蛋白平台。

基於三大平台公司已開發出RC48、泰它西普等臨牀後期階段產品,未來有

望開發出更多高壁壘創新藥物進一步滿足臨牀需求。

?本次發行計劃募集資金約39.9億港元,發行約7654萬H股,發行價約

52.1港元,主要用於候選藥物的臨牀開發及商業化。約50%用於候選藥物

臨牀開發及商業化,約25%用於擴大生產產能。

盈利預測與估值:?根據公司在研管線核心品種的拆分與估值,預計在僅考慮單藥治療情況下,

合理估值約為330億元。預計2020-2022三年收入額約0.02/1.69/7.60億

元。首次覆蓋,給予公司“買入”評級,目標價79.5港元。

風險提示:

?研發項目進展及海外拓展不達預期;產品獲批進度不達預期;核心品種上市

後銷售不達預期;初創型創新藥公司可能存在人員變動;現金流快速下降。

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