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瑞银:未来数月市场仍有上行空间 後续涨势主要由周期性较强行业驱动
阿思达克 11-09 12:13
瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele表示,拜登当选美国总统,整体而言,瑞银维持亲风险立场,认为基於大选已结束来拟定策略是最好的应对之道。同时,瑞银也预期市场焦点将转向经济增长等中长期驱动因素,包括疫情发展、疫苗进度以及货币与财政刺激等。

Haefele指,对於未来数月将有新冠疫苗获得核准,并在明年上半年问世保持乐观,并预期货币和财政政策仍为股市提供支持。而过去一周股市大涨的确推高了估值(特别是美股),但瑞银认为股市下一轮上升动力将来自於对经济较为敏感的股票,比如中型股、工业以及正在迎头赶上并具长期增长前景的部份周期性股票。他提到,大型科技股在大选当周强劲反弹,瑞银认为这是受到债券收益率走低以及监管的确定性高於蓝潮情景的推动。鉴於财政刺激规模可能低於预期,投资者似乎又重返成长型股票。

瑞银认为,未来几个月市场仍有上行空间,不过後续涨势主要由周期性较强的行业驱动。该行依然预计美国将推出规模较大的财政刺激方案来支持增长,即5000亿至1兆美元左右,占GDP的2.5%至5%。此外,该行认为至明年年中疫苗可广泛提供将带动经济复苏范围扩大。

在此环境下,中型股应得到良好支撑。在科技行业内,近期供应链、支付和数位广告等领域的公司公布了强劲业绩,为该行的观点带来支持,即增加目前表现落後但周期性较强的科技股配置,而不是电商和软体等在疫情中跑赢大盘的行业。

在美国以外,瑞银建议投资者也应为大规模刺激措施做好准备,加仓对经济更为敏感的市场和类股,认为,英国股票、欧元区中小型股票和新兴市场价值股都是上佳之选。

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