阿里巴巴-SW(09988.HK)：泛电商积极求变，云计算盈利在即，维持“买入”评级，目标价353港币
机构：国盛证券
评级：买入
目标价：353港币
21Q2财季云计算增长稳健，核心电商增长质胜于量。阿里巴巴 21Q2财季实现收入 1551 亿元，同比增长 30%；其中核心电商和云计算收入分别为1309/149 亿元，同比增长 29%/60%。本财季阿里国内零售年度活跃买家数环比增长 1500万人至7.57亿人，MAU环比增长700万人至 8.81亿人。本季阿里调整后EBITA同比增长28%至 412亿元，EBITA利润率27%，同比基本持平。Non-GAAP归母净利同比增长43%至493亿元。
电商：内容升级，创新变现。淘宝APP完成首页改版，扩展了信息流推荐，强化用户沉浸式体验，提升使用时长和转化率；超级推荐、超级直播、超级短视频、超级互动等创新变现模式推动本季度客户管理收入增长 20%。截至 9月淘宝直播GMV(TTM)超过 3500亿元；淘宝特价版MAU达 7000万，环比增长3000万。电商买家数已经足够成熟，通过内容升级等方式提升用户消费开支及频次，天猫实物商品 GMV增长 21%、淘宝实物商品 GMV增长百分之十几。
本地生活：完善生态，积极应战。本财季新零售收入增长 44%，本地生活服务收入增长29%。7月饿了么战略升级为生活服务平台，即时配送服务范围扩大至生鲜、杂货和鲜花等多个品类， 带来本季日均付费用户数增长45%。菜鸟收入同比增长73%，有望在本财年实现经营现金流转正。面对美团、拼多多、微信等互联网巨头在本地生活的动作频频，阿里 10月控股高鑫零售、进一步加强新零售布局，11 月盒马火锅外卖于盒马、饿了么平台正式发售，售价为堂食五折左右，且投入将不设上限。今年饿了么口碑、淘票票、飞猪等与支付宝合作入局双十一，为消费者提供“吃喝玩乐”服务，阿里经济体生态在本地生活的协同发展值得期待。
云计算：下一站盈利。本财季云计算收入同比增长 60%，主要为互联网、金融及零售行业客户驱动；云计算经调整EBITA亏损 1.56亿元，EBITA 利润率改善至-1%，去年同期为-6%。截至上半年云计算付费用户规模已超过300万；云计算收入结构逐步优化，用户使用产品的深度不断提升，从最初使用基础的 IaaS服务、到后续叠加 PaaS 和 SaaS等增值服务，除 IaaS外的增值服务收入占比已提升至55%。随着基础云服务产品规模效应的显现，以及大数据、物联网等应用层面产品的成熟，阿里云的盈利有望充分释放，云计算业务预计将在本财年实现盈利。
目标价 353港币，重申“买入”评级。我们预计阿里巴巴2021-2022财年收入增长35%/28%， 达6895/8807亿元； non-GAAP归母净利达2021/2547亿元。 基于核心电商20x 2022e P/E、云计算10x 2022e P/S、大文娱3x 2022eP/S、创新业务3x 2022e P/S，我们给予阿里巴巴353港币目标价，重申“买入”评级。
风险提示：核心电商竞争超预期，云计算盈利进展不及预期，金融科技监管加强可能对公司产生一定潜在影响。
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