吉利汽車(00175.HK)：新平台帶來顯著增量，浩瀚架構擁抱智能電動，維持“買入”評級，目標價25.18港元
機構：興業證券
評級：買入
目標價：25.18港元
投資要點
乘用車行業迎來向上週期，公司有望受益。我國乘用車行業自2018年7月開始經歷了連續22個月負增長，今年5月產銷同比轉正並已連續5個月實現正增長，9月，乘用車產銷分別完成204.5萬輛和208.8萬輛，分別同比增長9.7%和8.2%。我們認為，行業已經迎來向上週期，在中央和地方刺激汽車消費政策促進下，伴隨四季度傳統銷量高峯到來，疊加連續兩年下滑導致同期低基數，此輪向上週期有望延續至2022年，公司作為自主品牌一線龍頭有望受益。
lCMA/BMA/SPA平台車型陸續上市將為公司帶來顯着增量。11月，公司CMA平台首款轎車星瑞上市，拉開吉利4.0造車時代序幕。星瑞搭載了沃爾沃Drive-E系列2.0TD缸內直噴渦輪增壓發動機及7DCT變速箱，在動力性能、車身外觀、巡航系統、內飾設計等方面優勢顯着，售價區間僅11.37-14.97萬元，有望成為新一代走量車型。展望明年，全面切換至CMA/BMA平台的全新帝豪、博越、全新換代領克01，基於SPA平台的中大型SUV領克EX11的上市，將大大增強吉利競爭力，有望為公司帶來顯着增量。
lSEA浩瀚架構擁抱智能電動時代。SEA浩瀚架構是吉利歷經4年開發週期、180億投入開發的基於純電動的智能原創架構，可實現1800-3300mm的寬泛軸距、A-E級車全尺寸覆蓋，軟件開發可以比傳統嵌入式開發時間縮短50%，目前已經為超過7個品牌，16款產品進行研發。基於浩瀚架構的領克ZEROconcept將會在2021年正式上市。SEA架構支持全場景功能模塊的雙宂餘，在2021年首款產品投放市場後，就可以實現以下脱手、脱眼、自主泊車、自動變道自動導航駕駛等功能，2025年有望實現開放道路完全自動駕駛能力。
我們的觀點：國內乘用車行業迎來向上週期，吉利進入4.0造車時代，切換至CMA/BMA/SPA架構後公司產品競爭力、盈利能力、性價比進得到顯着提升。此外，與沃爾沃的合併將會發揮雙方的協同效益，有利於公司在海外市場的開拓及技術的提升，我們預測2020-2022年收入分別為950.45、1097.32、1182.26億元，歸母淨利潤分別73.23、98.81和106.95億元人民幣，目標價從13.33港元提高至25.18港元，維持買入評級。
風險提示：行業需求不及預期；行業競爭加劇；新平台推進不及預期
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