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建築裝飾龍頭優勢凸顯,建築藍籌有望迎來估值回升,維持“強大於市”行業評級
格隆匯 11-09 10:20

機構:天風證券

評級:強大於市

1、近期中國建築的二級市場表現較好。短期來看,中國建築正在回購股份用於限制性股票計劃:中長期來看,建築央企、國企等大公司在經營中仍有較大的騰挪餘地,現在距離他們艱難求生的地步還很遙遠。2020年前三季度建築央企的訂單、營收、淨利潤增速仍然向上,説明龍頭優勢仍在維持,或者説龍頭後續經營情況或將超出市場預期。

2、因此,我們一直認為,建築行業龍頭、細分子行業龍頭、區域龍頭的經營方面有些較大的競爭優勢,也有很大的張力。目前的估值水平已處於底部區域,伴隨基本面的逐漸向好,我們認為他們的估值水平有望回升,以中國建築為代表的龍頭公司就是典型的例子;隨着時間推移,預計這些龍頭公司顯着的競爭優勢也會逐漸催升他們的估值水平。

3、基本面方面,不論統計局公佈的基建增速和固定資產投資增速、還是上市公司披露出來的業績增速和訂單增速,都顯示出建築行業景氣仍在回升,也顯示出龍頭公司顯着強於行業。

4、近兩個月,我們發佈多份週報,梳理建築行業投資邏輯,我們認為建築板塊估值提升的信號越來越明顯、概率逐漸提升。具體來説:子行業龍頭中,預製裝配行業龍頭遠大住工、築友製造科技、鋼結構行業龍頭精工鋼構和富煌鋼構、設計行業龍頭中設集團、城建設計和蘇交科、裝飾行業龍頭金螳螂等未來仍將保持強勢。同時建築行業內龍頭中,中字頭國有企業在基建、建築工程、地產開發等項目方面的競爭優勢也是未來保證企業營收的重要因素,中國鐵建、中國建築、中國建築國際、中國中鐵未來同樣值得關注。

風險提示:訂單執行進度不及預期;投資增速恢復速度不及預期。

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