《大行报告》中金料友邦(01299.HK)明年首季新业务价值迎来增长拐点 料明年次季增34%
中金近日发表报告,认为友邦保险(01299.HK)长期增长前景依旧稳健,近期股价回调将提供进场机会,该行预计友邦明年第一季迎来新业务价值增长拐点,为增速高点。如果今年年底到明年年初中国香港和中国大陆通关且全球疫情大幅缓解,该行预计公司在明年首季新业务价值按年增长14%,主要增长驱动力为中国香港和大陆市场。该行维持对友邦「跑赢行业」评级和目标价95元不变。
该行亦估计友邦可於明年第二季公司新业务价值按年大幅增长34%,为2019年第一季以来季度增速高点,主要增长驱动力为中国香港和东南亚市场。该行估计大陆游客贡献的中国香港地区新业务价值可能需要至少两年才能恢复到2019年的水平。但从新业务价值增量贡献的角度来看,大陆游客的恢复是推动2021年公司新业务价值增速的重要驱动因素之一。
中金,预计友邦未来五年新市场扩张对友邦中国新业务价值增速平均有每年5个百分点的贡献。该行认为未来10年公司每年有望在内地扩张到1-2个新的省份。随着友邦进入中国大陆更多区域,预计公司将较此前更重视中国大陆业务的增长速度,体现为鼓励代理人销售更多的储蓄型产品、加快代理人招募速度。
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