中國建材(03323.HK)：內生改善成果初現，盈利具備向上彈性，維持“買入”評級，目標價13.79 港元
機構：國元證券
評級：買入
目標價：13.79 港元
2020 Q1-Q3 歸母淨利潤 yoy+11.82%，略超預期
公司 Q1-Q3 錄得營業收入 1817.73 億元，yoy-0.8%，其中 Q3 為 742.7 億元， yoy+ 6.86%。歸母淨利潤 116.26 億元，yoy+11.82%，業績略超預期；其中 Q1/Q2/Q3歸母淨利潤分別為6.2/47.7/62.4億元，yoy-76.2%/+50.8%/+33.9%。
公司逐步兑現承諾，解決內部同業競爭問題，打開業績向上空間
公司承諾到 2020 年解決各業務板塊內部存在的同業競爭問題，主要包括水 泥、工程、新材料，截至目前公司正逐步兑現：1）2020 年 8 月，公司宣 告將通過天山股份（000877.SZ）集中整合水泥業務核心資產；2）10 月公 告擬將工程服務板塊整合至中材國際(600970.SH)；3）預計明後兩年有望 加快推進玻纖板塊的整合。公司首先通過併購重組的方式從股權架構上實 現整合，其次在業務運營上通過統一管理的模式，增強協同效應，推進公 司由集中走向統一，進而從根本上解決內部同業競爭問題。從公司 Q3 盈 利數據來看，公司管理整合與提升已初顯成效，釋放出較強內生增長動力， 盈利向上空間被打開。
資產負債表質量改善加速，現金流充沛助力優化負債結構
1）資產負債率：截至 2020Q3 公司資產負債率為 64.1%，較 2020H1、2019 年底分別下降 1.4ppts 、2.0ppts。2）商譽：18 年、19 年分別計提 93、134 億，兩年共計減值 227 億，20H1 減值 44 億，截至 20Q3 公司商譽為 360 億，預計今年底可完成商譽三年戰略性優化任務。3）經營現金流:截至 20Q3 經營性現金流為 228 億，助力優化負債結構。
維持“買入”評級,上調目標價至 13.79 港元： 在 1）架構改善以及管理協同穩步推進，內生增長動力逐漸釋放；2）高商 譽、高負債率得到逐步緩解；3）有序進行減產置換的情況下，公司基本面 持續改善，利潤有望逐步釋放，催化估值中樞上移。我們維持預測公司 2020/2021 年營業收入為 2604.68/ 2745.72 億元，同比增長 2.8%/5.4%；上 調淨利潤分別至 140.05/157.14 億元，同比增長 27.6%/12.2%。若參照 2020 年行業平均 1 倍的 PB 進行估值，公司合理目標價為 13.79 港元，較現價有 43.53%的漲幅空間，對應 2020 年 7.5 倍 PE，維持“買入”評級。
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