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《季績前瞻》券商料港交所(00388.HK)第三季可多賺43% 受惠港股暢旺日均成交增八成
阿思達克 11-06 12:17
港交所(00388.HK)將於下周三(11日)公布今年第三季業績,受惠於港股季內現貨市場成交暢旺,包括更多中概股來港上市、北水南來的資金大升(花旗料北水南來第三季按年大升1.2倍或按季升33%),季內日均成交額達1,400億元按年升逾八成所帶動下,本網綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季錄得純利介乎31.16億元至32.85億元,較2019年同期22.07億元,按年增41.2%至48.8%,中位數為31.61億元,按年升43.2%。

綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季收入及其他收益介乎49.74億元至52.17億元,較2019年同期39.87億元,按年增24.8%至30.9%;中位數為51.15億元,按年升28.3%。綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季交易費及交易系統使用費收益介乎18.27億元至19.5億元,較2019年同期13.69億元,按年上升33.5%至42.4%;中位數為19.18億元,按年升40.1%。。

據港交所公布今年第三季市場概況資料數據,今年第三季總成交金額91.41萬億元,交易日數為65天,即第三季日均成交額約1,406.3億元,較2019年第三季768.6億元按年升83%。此外,美銀證券近日發表報告表示,指無須高估螞蟻集團(06688.HK)暫緩H股上市對港股成交額的影響,不認為單一新股或公司可以改變對港交所的前景。

【受惠港股旺 料多賺四成】

花旗料港交所今年第三季純利錄31.57億元按年升43%(按季增長6%)、料總體收入按年升28%至51.22億元、估計其上季核心收入(撇除投資收益淨額及雜項收益)錄43.68億元按年升43%(按季增23%)、估計來自證券相關收入錄11.74億元按年大升84%、料衍生工具相關收入按年持平至4.62億元、料來自LME收入按人升5%,並估計港交所第三季每股盈利預測可按年升42%至2.51元,料EBITDA毛利率80%按年升3.8個百分點、料港股第三季日均成交額1,410.63億元按年升83%(按升24%)、料衍生工具日均成交量按年升20%。。

摩根士丹利上月下旬發表報告,料港交所今年第三季業績仍強勁,估計其第三季利錄316億元按年升43%(按季升6%),料季內收入按年升28%(按季增7%)至51億元,估計其中港交所上季交易費及交易系統使用費收入按年升42%(按季升27%)至19.5億元、料聯交所上市費收入4.43億元按年升12%、估計結算及交收費收入11.97億元按年升54%(按季升28%)、料存管、託管及代理人服務費收入3.19億元按年升16%(按季跌18%)、估計市場數據費收入2.43億元按年升5%(按季增3%)、並估計投資收益按年跌6%至6億元。

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本網綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季錄得純利介乎31.16億元至32.85億元,較2019年同期22.07億元,按年增41.2%至48.8%;中位數為31.61億元,按年升43.2%。

券商│今年第三季純利預測(港元)│按年變幅

摩根大通│32.85億元│+48.8%

摩根士丹利│31.64億元│+43.4%

花旗│31.57億元│+43%

麥格理│31.16億元│+41.2%

按港交所2019年第三季純利22.07億元計算

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綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季收入及其他收益介乎49.74億元至52.17億元,較2019年同期39.87億元,按年增24.8%至30.9%;中位數為51.15億元,按年升28.3%。

券商│今年收入及其他收益預測(港元)│按年變幅

摩根大通│52.17億元│+30.9%

花旗│51.22億元│+28.5%

摩根士丹利│51.07億元│+28.1%

麥格理│49.74億元│+24.8%

按港交所2019年第三季收入及其他收益39.87億元計算

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本網綜合4間券商預測,港交所今年第三季交易費及交易系統使用費收益介乎18.27億元至19.5億元,較2019年同期13.69億元,按年上升33.5%至42.4%;中位數為19.18億元,按年升40.1%。。

券商│投資收益淨額及雜項收益(港元)│按年變幅

摩根士丹利│19.5億元│+42.4%

摩根大通│19.19億元│+40.2%

花旗│19.16億元│+40%

麥格理│18.27億元│+33.5%

按港交所2019年第三季交易費及交易系統使用費收益13.69億元計算

(ta/w)

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