東軟教育(09616.HK)2020中報點評：一體兩翼，協同發展，給予“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
收入穩健，盈利能力有所提升
2020H1 實現收入 4.40 億元（-3.4%），調後淨利潤 1.01 億元（0.7%），收入下降主要是疫情期間退還 2390 萬元住宿費所致。毛利率 35.7%（+0.2%），淨利率 22.9%（+0.9%）。銷售、管理費用率上行，分別為2.4%（+1.3%）、11.5%（1.4%），前者是天津睿道並表所致，後者主要為上市開支增加。財務和研發費用率保持穩定，分別為 3.9%、2.2%。
深耕行業多年的 IT 高教第一股
東軟教育旗下含廣東、大連、成都三所本科高校，2020H1 期末在校本 科生約 36000 人。公司深耕 IT 高等教育多年，善於把握行業需求動向，同時積累了豐富的知識資產。在我國經濟數字化信息化轉型的背景下，公司有望憑藉辦學經驗、優質內容持續培養輸出相關產業人才。
內生增長穩健，輕資產迅速擴張
公司以旗下三所本科高校為體，重點發展數字工場和教育資源輸出兩翼業務。三所高校未來將通過擴容提費方式實現持續內生增長。量： 4-5 年內在校人數有望達到 50000 人。價：通常 2-3 年調升一次學費 。 2020/21 學年三所大學均有 2000-4000 元的學費提升。
兩翼：通過智慧教育平台、共建專業、產業學院對外輸出自身優質教學資源和辦學體系；通過數字工場對學生、社會人員開展技能培訓。這兩項業務未來有望實現快速的複製與擴張，在增厚業績的同時提升整體利潤率水平。
首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級
公司未來擴容提費和輕資產運營有望實現業績持續增長與利潤率的提升，首次覆蓋並給予“買入”評級。預測 2020-2022 年的收入分別為10.95、12.87、15.03 億元，歸母淨利潤分別為 1.79、2.23、2.78 億 元。合理估值區間 9.98~10.56 港元。
風險提示
校區擴建和招生不及預期；共建專業等輕資產業務擴張不及預期。
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