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中國交通建設(01800.HK):2020年3季度業績差於預期,維持“收集”評級,目標價4.90 港元
格隆匯 11-05 15:30

機構:國泰君安

評級:收集

目標價:4.90 港元

中交建(01800 HK) 2020 年 1-3 季度收入同比升 9.1%至 4,097 億元(人民幣,下同),股東淨利同比降 24.8%至 101 億元,每股淨利同比降 27.4%至 0.550 元。業績差於預期,主要由於 2020 年 3 季度高於預期的研發費用及財務費用。3 季度整體毛利率同比提高 1.9個百分點至 13.7%。3 季度公司新籤合同同比增 30.8%,高於 2 季度的 4.2%增長。

我們將 2019-2022 年整體收入的年複合增長率從7.2%調低至 6.9%,並預計整體毛利率將會從 2020 年的 12.4%上升至 2022 年的 12.7%。

我們對 2020/ 2021/ 2022 年的每股盈利預測分別為人民幣 0.978 元、1.218 元及 1.372 元。受海外疫情影響,公司業務預計將復甦緩慢,公司海外收入佔比高於同業,受影響程度較高。此外,相對於政府正在持續加大投資的鐵路及城軌建設,公司建造板塊的收入主要來源於路橋及港口建設,因此我們認為公司的估值相較其同業應有一定的折讓。我們將目標價下調至 4.90 港元,對應 8.0/ 6.8/ 6.7 倍的 2020/ 2021/ 2022 年 EV/EBITDA。維持“收 集”評級。

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