瑞银财管倡多元化投资迎接後市 ESG主题中长线看俏
就美国大选拜登当选概率上升一事，瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele发表报告，指总体而言，维持中期看好股票的观点。财政刺激措施依然提供支持(即使规模低於预期)，该行仍认为疫苗将在明年第二季广泛可得。在美国大选以及其他市场动态交织影响下，该行认为投资者可考虑以下行动：
第一，以多元化投资来迎接後市。大选可能出现的结果带动大型科技股飙升，该行认为这是由於债券收益率走低以及监管不确定性较蓝色浪潮情景降低的结果。不过，该行认为股市的下一波上涨很可能是由周期性较强的行业所驱动。该行依然预计国会将推出大规模刺激计画来支持经济增长：最多一万亿美元左右，相当於GDP的5%，这应有利於美国中型股。
如果拜登政府更严格地执行环保立法，该行还将在能源效率、基础设施和绿色能源方面见到一些机会。在美国以外，该行建议投资者也应准备好迎接一系列刺激措施，提高经济敏感型市场的布局。这包括英国股票、欧元区中小型股票以及新兴市场价值股。拜登胜选也会降低贸易政策的不确定性，有利於亚洲和中国股票。
另该行称，第二，应为美元走软做好准备。相比於蓝色浪潮，两党分治政府与国会将使得预算赤字扩大的幅度较为温和。不过，联邦预算支出仍然会维持在较高水准，而且，至少在一开始会以扩大赤字来融资。在美国居民储蓄率开始下降之际，经常帐赤字上升，意味着美国对外部融资的需求更高。此外，市场愈发关注美国的债务规模，将不利於美元的避险需求。中长期而言，该行看好G10货币兑美元，包括欧元、英镑以及两个「更佳」避险选择－瑞郎和日圆。部分高息新兴市场货币和亚太货币也可能受益。而随着时间迈向2021年，以美元计价的黄金将获得小幅提振。
第三，该行称，增加可持续投资头寸。民主党未拿下参议院，将不利於拜登的气候变迁支出计画在国会过关。不少在选前估值大幅上升的洁净能源、基础建设以及自动化相关的股票在周三(4日)走弱。不过，拜登依然拥有行政权力。整体而言，该行预期拜登将会推动可持续议程，而这将为基建投资、可再生能源等绿色倡议提供支持，并有利於在ESG方面表现强劲的企业。由於欧洲及中国严格的监管和强有力的政策支持，该行认为这些主题在中长期仍然有利。
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