瑞银财管：拜登当选概率上升市场反应正面 财政刺激规模料低预期
瑞银财富管理全球首席投资总监Mark Haefele发表报告指，美国大选结果仍然胜负未分。不过，最新的计票数字显示民主党总统候选人拜登距离问鼎第46届美国总统宝座又进了一步。先前民调预测拜登大胜并未实现，且参议院似乎仍将在共和党的掌控之中。胶着的计票形势可能导致法律手段介入，而这可能令结果推迟至少一个星期出炉。
至目前为止，市场对计票结果反应正面。报告撰写时，标指大涨3.1%，纳指劲升4.5%。刺激方案规模可能有限，令十年期美国公债收益率下滑13个基点至0.76%，美元则大致持平。美国之外，人民币自低点回弹约1%，反映中美贸易关系将较能预测。
随着投资者对可能的选举结果及潜在政策方向有所掌握，股市走势反映了不确定性有所下降。波动率指标VIX指数下滑6个基点，VIX指数期货亦全线回落。该行认为，债券收益率下跌是因为投资者排除大规模刺激方案的可能性，而不是看坏前景。
尽管下行风险仍在，但该行对风险资产主要驱动因素的看法未变：经济自疫情中复苏、疫苗在2021年第二季後广泛可得，以及央行持续提供积极政策支持。
报告称，政府和国会分别由两党掌控(民主党掌控白宫、共和党掌控参议院)可能意味着财政刺激规模比预期的要小。目前该行预计刺激规模可能至多为一万亿美元，相当於GDP的5%，而不是蓝色浪潮下的逾两万亿美元。不过，该刺激计划很可能包括对於经济复苏最重要的因素，包括增加失业救济金和用於薪资保障计划的额外资金。
不过，政治僵局也可能产生一些正面影响，这是周三(4日)风险资产上涨的另一个因素。共和党掌控参议院使得公司税或个人所得税不太可能在未来几年内大幅调升。尽管民主党政府可能收紧环保和其他法规，但政治僵局也降低了立法创建公共医保选择或严厉惩罚化石燃料行业的可能性。
广泛而言，国会由两党分别掌控提升了政治面的可预测性，因政策大幅改变的可能性降低。这减少了经济不确定性，进而降低市场波动。
就美元而言，新一轮财政刺激力度小於蓝色浪潮情景，可能会降低美元的短期压力。不过，该行认为美元将会在中长期内走贬，因其相对於其他G10货币的息差已不具吸引力。此外，该行也需要考虑，倘若尽快推出大规模财政刺激的可能性显着下降，则美联储会可能会觉得有必要采取更加有力的行动。
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