中聯重科(01157.HK)：股價已反映毛利率風險，良好的買入機會，維持“買入”評級，目標價10.50港元
機構：招商銀行
評級：買入
目標價：10.50港元
中聯重科第三季度利潤強勁（同比增長 85%），管理層對需求的展望（第四季度環比增長 10%）和對毛利潤率的展望（環比改善）表明業務前景仍然良好。我們認為最近因擔心利潤率而導致的股價回調過度，為良好的買入機會。我們將2020E-22E 的盈利預測略微下調了 2-4%，以反映更高的銷量但更保守的毛利率預測。我們將基年延展至 2021 年，目標倍數為 10 倍 P/E（之前為 2020 年 12 倍P/E），目標價從 11.2 港元微調至 10.5 港元。維持買入評級。
第三季度業績亮點。第三季度淨利潤同比增長 85%至 16.7 億元人民幣，處於公司於 10 月中旬發佈的盈喜範圍內（14.8-17.8 億元人民幣）。收入同比增長73%至 164 億元人民幣，而毛利率同比收窄 2.4 個百分點、環比收窄 1.8 個百分點至 27%。淨經營現金流同比增長 58%至 26 億元人民幣。
全業務分部強勁增長。前九個月，混凝土機械和起重機的收入分別同比增長34%和 44%至 137 億元人民幣和 236 億元人民幣。農機收入同比增長 35%。就新業務而言，來自挖掘機的收入同比增長 244%，而來自高空作業平台的收入同比增長 60%。
料毛利率將在第四季度反彈。第三季度毛利率下降是由於：（1）利潤率較低的小型汽車起重機和塔式起重機的銷量增加；（2）利潤率較低的混凝土攪拌車比混凝土泵的增長更快；（3）與現有業務相比，快速發展的高空作業平台和挖掘機利潤率較低（儘管有所提高）。然而，由於（1）新業務利潤率不斷提高，以及（2）公司於第三季度開始實施的集中採購政策將有助於降低成本，因此管理層有信心在第四季度取得更高的利潤率。
第四季度和 2021年前景樂觀。管理層認為，持續穩健的基建和房地產投資，加上人工替代和嚴格的環境保護政策都是有利的推動因素。此外，大型企業將受惠於繼續上升的行業集中度。管理層認為，這一輪上升週期將比上一輪更加強勁。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
