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標普:中國新能源汽車行業未來十年迎更蓬勃發展
格隆匯 11-05 13:10

評級機構標普全球發表報告指出,中國的新能源汽車行業未來十年將迎來更加蓬勃的發展。在過去兩年中國政府大幅削減補貼後,行業競爭將愈加激烈,並考驗汽車製造商的競爭力。這可能推動車企推出更具吸引力的產品,因而促進並提升需求,從而使行業在長期實現高質量增長。

國務院日前發佈新能源汽車產業發展規劃(2021-2035年),提出到2025年新能源汽車新車銷售量達到汽車新車銷售總量的20%左右。報告認為,鑑於2019年以來汽車銷量下行,這一目標相較去年草案公佈的25%的目標更切合實際。此外,規劃將得益於電池技術的改進、更多新車款的推出、購買模式的創新、以及逐步增長的基礎設施。

報告預料,商業用户的需求將保持穩健。因為中國政府要求,2021年起國家生態文明試驗區、大氣污染防治重點區域的公共領域新增或更新公交、出租、物流配送等車輛中新能源汽車比例不低於80%。另一方面,整車廠料在未來幾年會增加研發成本和資本支出。這部分費用將用於推出在不同細分市場更具競爭力的新能源汽車以滿足消費者需求,同時達到政府的“雙積分”政策要求。

報告同時看好鋰離子電池生產商的增長前景,預計電池廠商將不斷進行技術升級,降低電池成本並提高能量密度。電池性能的增強亦可能令整個行業的電氣化進程提速。但這也許會導致電池廠商未來幾年的利潤率承壓。

報告認為,寧德時代(300750.SZ)將保持在中國市場上的主導地位,而國軒高科(002074.SZ)、孚能科技(688567.SH)等其它電池廠商也會滲入了國際整車廠的供應鏈,預計中國的電池廠商未來數年將在全球供應鏈中發揮更加重要的作用。

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