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佳兆業集團(01638.HK):大灣區城市更新絕對領軍者,維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-04 17:18

機構:國信證券

評級:買入

估值與投資建議

結合絕對估值與相對估值,基於保守審慎的原則,我們認為公司未來一個財年內合理股價區間為 4.55 至 5.93 元,較當前股價有 44.9%至88.8%的空間,預計公司 2020、2021 年歸母核心淨利潤分別為 59.7億、74.5 億元,對應最新股本的核心 EPS 分別為 0.98、1.22 元,對應最新股價的 PE 分別為 3.2、2.6X,維持“買入”評級。

城市更新進入加速時代

着眼於開發商的角度,一個城市更新項目分計劃階段、規劃階段、實施階段,當從開始介入一箇舊改項目,到拿到土地證,一般時長為 5 至 8 年。近期,大灣區針對加速舊改流程的利好頻出,預計可加速舊改流程三年左右的時間。

大灣區城市更新絕對領軍者

公司以地產開發為主業,借“城市更新”領域的專業優勢,經過二十餘年的發展,公司業務已覆蓋京津冀協同發展區域、粵港澳大灣區、長江經濟帶等主要經濟區域,進駐全國超 50 個重要城市。公司以“精耕深圳”為初期發展戰略,逐漸步入區域領先,擁有土地儲備總建築面積 2680 萬平方米,其中大灣區佔比超過 50%,可保證公司未來三年的發展及銷售的增長。在壁壘頗高的城市更新方面,公司經驗豐富、優勢明顯,更加聚焦於利潤豐厚的拆除重建類的項目,平均毛利率可達到 50%。

嚴格把控財務指標,降負債成效明顯

自 2016 年以來,公司毛利率、淨利率持續提升,均處於較高水平,考慮到公司高毛利的舊改項目佔整體銷售比例穩中有增,我們認為公司未來毛利率水平有望維持相對高位。公司嚴控負債水平,降負債成效明顯,預計 2020 全年公司的淨負債率將有望回落至 120%。

風險提示

若調控超預期導致未來銷售不及預期從而導致估值及盈利預測過高。

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