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中國人民保險集團(01339.HK):壽險繼續承壓,維持“中性“評級,目標價 2.46 港元
格隆匯 11-04 17:18

機構:國泰君安

評級:中性

目標價: 2.46 港元

人保集團(01339 HK)2020 年首 3 季度的業績由於財險承保惡化而差於我們的預期。總保費在 2020 年首 3 季度增 3.6%,相當於 2020 年第三季度增長 1.5%。2020 年首 3 季度的股東淨利降 12.3%,相當於 2020 年第三季度增長 4.8%。壽險分部在 2020 年第三季度錄得 5.3%的首年保費下滑。躉交和首年期交保費分別下降 0.5%和 10.5%。長於預期的新冠疫情影響和宏觀經濟疲軟是造成壽險增長放緩的原因。健康險也遭遇了保費增長放緩,2020 年第三季度首年保費降 9.1%。但是,2020 年首 3 季度健康險首年保費增長保持強勁。考慮到債券收益率的反彈,投資收益在 2020 年第三季度增 32.0%。

2020 年第三季度的增長放緩表明壽險業務仍然承壓。第三季度的增長放緩是由於新冠疫 情影響長於預期以及宏觀經濟環境疲弱導致的需求疲軟。由於疫情期間新招募代理人的素 質較差,壽險代理人人數減少了 10.2%至 46 萬人。增長放緩反映了壽險市場的壓力。由 於客户仍然不願意進行面對面溝通以及需求的疲軟,個代更難銷售保單。因此,我們認為儘管國內市場的疫情爆發得到了遏制,但壽險業務仍然面臨壓力。

下調目標價至 2.46 港元,維持“中性”評級。我們將目標價進一步下調至 2.46 港元,相當於 0.31 倍經計算 2020 年集團 P / EV。對於財險,車險將受到車險綜合改革影響。非車險仍將遭受融資類信用保證險賠付增加的困擾。對於壽險和健康險,個代渠道的需求疲軟和銷售的困難將繼續存在。因此,我們維持“中性”評級。

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