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中国人民保险集团(01339.HK):寿险继续承压,维持“中性“评级,目标价 2.46 港元
格隆汇 11-04 17:18

机构:国泰君安

评级:中性

目标价: 2.46 港元

人保集团(01339 HK)2020 年首 3 季度的业绩由于财险承保恶化而差于我们的预期。总保费在 2020 年首 3 季度增 3.6%,相当于 2020 年第三季度增长 1.5%。2020 年首 3 季度的股东净利降 12.3%,相当于 2020 年第三季度增长 4.8%。寿险分部在 2020 年第三季度录得 5.3%的首年保费下滑。趸交和首年期交保费分别下降 0.5%和 10.5%。长于预期的新冠疫情影响和宏观经济疲软是造成寿险增长放缓的原因。健康险也遭遇了保费增长放缓,2020 年第三季度首年保费降 9.1%。但是,2020 年首 3 季度健康险首年保费增长保持强劲。考虑到债券收益率的反弹,投资收益在 2020 年第三季度增 32.0%。

2020 年第三季度的增长放缓表明寿险业务仍然承压。第三季度的增长放缓是由于新冠疫 情影响长于预期以及宏观经济环境疲弱导致的需求疲软。由于疫情期间新招募代理人的素 质较差,寿险代理人人数减少了 10.2%至 46 万人。增长放缓反映了寿险市场的压力。由 于客户仍然不愿意进行面对面沟通以及需求的疲软,个代更难销售保单。因此,我们认为尽管国内市场的疫情爆发得到了遏制,但寿险业务仍然面临压力。

下调目标价至 2.46 港元,维持“中性”评级。我们将目标价进一步下调至 2.46 港元,相当于 0.31 倍经计算 2020 年集团 P / EV。对于财险,车险将受到车险综合改革影响。非车险仍将遭受融资类信用保证险赔付增加的困扰。对于寿险和健康险,个代渠道的需求疲软和销售的困难将继续存在。因此,我们维持“中性”评级。

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