中遠海控(01919.HK)：集運行業景氣度高企，公司Q3業績大幅增長
機構：國元證券
業績點評：
業績大幅增長，Q3 歸母淨利潤 yoy+209.8%： 公司 Q1-Q3 錄得營業收入 1177.09 億元，yoy+5.5%; 歸母淨利潤為 38.6 億 元，yoy+82.4%，其中 Q1/Q2/Q3 歸母淨利潤分別為 2.9/8.5/27.2 億元， yoy-57.6%/+53.8%/+209.8%，實現大幅增長。分業務來看，Q1-Q3 公司集運 業務板塊實現航線收入 152.8 億美元，yoy+5.4%，其中中遠海運集運實現 航線收入 103.9 億美元，yoy+5.2%；東方海外實現航線收入 50.4 億美元， yoy+7.8%。
貨運量環比改善顯著，Q3 環比+13.5%： 從貨運量來看，Q1-Q3 公司船隊完成貨運量 1,892.74 萬標準箱，yoy-0.9%， 其中，Q3 完成貨運量 708.18 萬標準箱，yoy+6.6%，環比增長 13.5%。碼頭 業務方面，Q1-Q3 公司旗下中遠海運港口總吞吐量 9,109.63 萬標準箱， yoy-1.2%，其中，Q3 總吞吐量 3,346.21 萬標準箱，yoy+3.3%。
Q3 集運需求環比+8.1%，CCFI 指數均值 yoy+10.8%： 截至 2020 年 9 月 28 日市場閒置運力佔運營運力比例為 2.2%。在運力高投 放的情況下，集運市場仍然供不應求，主要原因為（1）全球經濟復甦狀態 下，疊加聖誕前補庫存，集運需求旺季，Q3 集運需求環比 yoy+8.1%；（2） 由於港口擁堵、貨主滿倉等原因導致船舶在港口週轉效率不佳；（3）受疫 情影響，全球新交付的運力下行。在運力供給緊張的背景下，運價維持高 位，Q1-Q3 CCFI 指數均值為 893 點，yoy+8.2%，Q3 CCFI 指數均值為 910 點，yoy+10.8%，環比+6.6%。
我們的觀點： 公司為全球第三大海運公司，在東西主幹航線以及澳洲等航線均有較強競 爭力，具備較高盈利彈性。我們認為公司將顯著受益於當前集運景氣週期， 4Q 業績仍有望超預期。
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