滔搏(06110.HK)：盈利表現穩健，迎接旺季反彈，維持“買入”評級
機構：國信證券
評級：買入
疫情下業績小幅下滑，現金流充沛增派特別息
FY21 1H 實現收入 157.7 億，-7%，歸母淨利潤 13.1 億，-11%，扣非後淨利潤 13.1 億，-14.6%。零售/批發/其他收入-11.5%/+22.9%/+8.1%，主力品牌與其他品牌收入變化一致。毛利率 41.6%，-2.1pp，扣非後淨利率 8.3%，-0.7pp；存貨週轉天數 132.4 天，+9.7 天，仍為健康水平，經營性現金流淨額 20 億，不考慮税率影響下同比+7.3%；EPS 約為21.11 分，中期股息每股 12 分派息率約 57%，額外派發每股 40 分。
線下店鋪面積正增長，線上 O2O 持續發力
FY21 1H 店鋪數比期初淨減少 239 家，同比-2.5%，但總面積同比+5.2%，150 平以上店鋪佔比繼續擴大。期間數字化轉型加速，包括 9月實現小程序 2.0 的升級、選拔店員展開直播活動、企業微信覆蓋門店網絡超過 90%統一管理私域流量，累計會員註冊數 3310 萬人，貢獻銷售比例提升至 97.3%；電競英雄聯盟分部取得亮眼戰績。
更改持股結構利於避免管理層被動減持，看好下半財年業績反彈
公告百麗體育分派股權，因此前公司因此前公司管理層和其他股東一致行動的持股架構存在導致管理層被動減持的可能性，分派股權後將有利於管理層更長遠持有公司股份。展望下半財年，9-10 月銷售環比 7-8 月加速，雙十一加強線上線下聯動，供應鏈到貨率情況好於此前預期，以及去年 2 月的低基數效應，下半年財年業績有望實現加速增長。
風險提示
1.疫情反覆，經濟大幅下行；2.渠道改革不及預期；3.系統性風險。
投資建議：看好短期業績拐點與長期“現金牛”表現
我們維持盈利預測，預計公司，我們預計公司 21-23 財年淨利潤分別同增 13%/19.8%/15.1%，當前股價對應 PE 為 22.1x/18.4x/16.02x，上調合理估值為 11.7-12.3 港元，對應 FY22 PE21-22x，維持“買入”評級。
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