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六福集团(00590.HK):2021财年第2季度运营数据差于预期,维持“中性“评级,目标价19.00港元
格隆汇 11-03 21:18

机构:国泰君安

评级:中性

目标价:19.00港元

六福 2021 财年第 2 季度总体同店销售同比下降 55%。分产品结构,镶嵌类珠宝和黄金产品的同店销售分别同比下降 65%和 46%。分市场来看,港澳市场的同店销售同比下降63%,其中黄金产品和镶嵌珠宝产品的同店销售分别同比下降 53%和 74%。在中国内地市场,自营店铺同店销售同比下降 15%,品牌店同店销售同比下降 4%。黄金产品和固定价格珠宝的表现接近。

预期中国内地同店销售在 2021 财年下半年和 2022 财年持续复苏。公司的复苏弱于我们之前预期但复苏趋势稳定。我们预期公司能在接下来的旺季实现更高的同店销售增长。我们认为公司大量的新开门店会在 2022 财年驱动收入增长。我们将 2021 财年盈利预测下调了 6.1%但将 2022 财年预测上调了 4.0%。

维持投资评级为“中性”但提高目标价至 19.00 港元。新目标价相当于 12.3 倍 2021 财年市盈率以及 10.2 倍 2022 财年市盈率,接近其历史平均估值。因为公司相对于其同业较弱的复苏及在香港的高暴露,我们维持“中性”评级。下行风险包括金价波动以及消费情绪疲弱。上行风险包括消费回升。

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