《大行報告》花旗料中資券商股可受惠A股結構性「牛市」 首選中信証券及華泰證券
花旗發表研究報告,指其覆蓋的中國券商股第三季收入及稅後淨利潤分別按年增長35%及31%,主要是受到經紀、投資銀行部、資產管理、淨利息收入增長所帶動,抵銷了自營交易的疲弱及撥備增加的影響。期內,淨資產回報率按年增0.75個百分點至4.53%,核心槓桿比率按年增長0.34倍至4.08倍。在其覆蓋的券商股中,東方證券(03958.HK)及中國銀河(06881.HK)的盈利增長最強勁,中信証券(06030.HK)的表現則最弱。
該行仍對中國券商股抱正面看法,因為無風險利率下降、機構參與度提高及有利的政策將支持A股出現結構性牛市。而即將出現的催化劑亦包括擴闊註冊制IPO、啟動T+0結算,以及中國退休福利計劃出台後或有更多資金流入A股市場等。
在10月31日舉行的國務院會議上,副總理劉鶴曾重申加快資本市場改革、通過全面推廣註冊制IPO來促進直接融資,以及建立更佳退市機制等目標,相信這些措施將提振A股市場氣氛,並在長遠惠及券商的投資銀行業務。在更多利好政策因素及潛在併購下,該行持續看好大型券商股,首選中信証券及華泰證券(06886.HK)。
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