穆迪料本港地產商可抵禦租金收入下滑 大部分可維持信貸評級
評級機構穆迪發表報告指,其覆蓋10家本港地產商加權平均EBITDA在2020財年料跌10%至15%,2021財年料再進一步跌5%。即使該行預期零售及辦公室租金收入下滑,在充裕財政緩衝及部分公司業務多元化下,大部分覆蓋地產商可維持信貸評級。
該行料即使旅遊限制放寬,旅客增長亦只會逐步提升。封關及持續經濟不確定性料致今年本港零售銷售跌25%至30%,明年料反彈10%。
持續租金優惠、出租率及續租租金下降,料致覆蓋地產商2020財年加權平均零售租金收入跌約15%,2021財年進一步跌5%至10%。由於九龍倉置業(01997.HK)高度曝露於非必需消費板塊,其所受衝擊最大。
此外,穆迪稱,空置率上升及企業更關注成本減省料致辦公室租金下滑,特別是中區。曝露於中區商廈市場的受覆蓋地產商辦公室租金收入在未來12個月料跌5%至10%。IFC發展公司、置地公司及冠君信託(02778.HK)今年上半年出租率維持高企,該三公司亦面對中區商廈需求轉弱的壓力。
穆迪補充,住宅樓市方面,在新冠疫情干擾下,料合約銷售下滑。但新地(00016.HK)、長實集團(01113.HK)、南豐資本結構仍強勁,源於業務多元化及過去兩年預售強勁。
該行續稱,對大部分覆蓋地產商而言,財務數據轉弱的影響屬可控。在2020及2021財年,覆蓋地產商加權平均經調整淨負債/EBITDA比率將由2019財年的2.3倍,上升至介乎2.8倍至3倍;而同期EBITDA/利息比率將由11.1倍轉弱至介乎8.2倍至8.9倍。另領展(00823.HK)主力必需品零售市場,將可抵禦盈利波動。同時希慎(00014.HK)淨負債低企,為集團提供充裕緩衝。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.