《大行報告》瑞銀:世茂服務(00873.HK)高增長被不明朗因素抵銷 首予「沽售」評級
瑞銀發表的研究報告首予世茂服務(00873.HK)「沽售」評級,目標價15.3元,認為併購帶動的增長或會令股份出現向下重估,情況就似雅生活(03319.HK)一樣,而公司是世茂集團(00813.HK)的物管附屬,截至今年6月底公司在108個城市的物業管理面積近1.26億平方米,該行估計公司2019至22年的淨利年複合增長將為71%,高於行業平均的48%,而世茂服務對IPO前的投資者亦有收入及盈利保證,相當於2019至2021年收入、盈利年複合增長80%及74%。
該行指出雖然公司增長快於同業,但被不明朗因素抵銷,其獲取第三方合約的往績有限,加上增長主要依賴併購,估值或會出現向下重估,認為現價相當於2021年預測市盈率24.9倍屬被高估。瑞銀認為公司有世茂集團支持,去年其合約銷售達2,600億元人民幣(下同),銷售面積之後可轉換至管理面積,估計2020及21年將分別有1,270萬及1,360萬平方米的新增管理面積是來自世茂集團。
該行認為公司為第三方提供服務的往績有限,認為需要時間建立,加上市場競爭激烈,仍要時間證實有沒有能力承接第三方的合約,相信短期而言併購仍然是主要的增長引擎,但擔心其併購估值提升或存在潛在的向下重估。
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