中遠海運港口(01199.HK):看好未來盈利能力提升,維持“收集”評級,目標價5.35港元
機構:國泰君安
評級:收集
目標價:5.35港元
中遠海運港口2020年第三季度股東淨利好於我們預期。雖然來自控股碼頭吞吐量同比下滑,但由於有利的匯率和箱量結構的改善,公司 2020 年第三季度收入仍同比上升 6.0%,略好於我們預期。受非控股碼頭權益吞吐量上升的拉動,來自合營及聯營公司的利潤同比上升12.3%。同時,因管理成本下降帶動經營利潤率上升,公司股東淨利同比上升 19.7%至 85.9百萬美元,優於我們及市場預期。
中遠海運港口的精細化管理有望提升公司毛利率。我們認為,通過(1)新運營碼頭吞吐量的增長和(2)精細化經營,公司毛利率有望提升。同時,公司設立提高第三方客户箱量比例的目標,這預計將有利於單箱收入的提升。展望未來,我們認為公司海外集裝箱吞吐量仍面臨新冠疫情反覆的風險,但我們預計大中華區吞吐量將在 2020 年第四季度持續增長。此外,對廣西北部灣國際集裝箱碼頭的投資預計將推動公司未來吞吐量的增長。
考慮到估值吸引和可靠的派息政策,重申“收集”評級,並上調目標價至 5.35 港元。公司目前現金充裕,有利於抵禦疫情下多變的環境及為潛在收購提供靈活性。疫情環境下可靠的股息政策應具吸引力。我們的目標價對應 7.0 倍、7.3 倍及 6.5 倍 2020-2022 年市盈率。

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