信義光能(00968.HK)：受益於光伏玻璃價格的猛升，維持“買入“評級，目標價15.70港元
機構：國泰君安
評級：買入
目標價：15.70港元
由於進入 2020 年三季度後光伏玻璃的供應無法跟上需求的猛增，光伏玻璃的銷售價格在6月至10月之間經歷了數輪的漲價並仍處於一個上行的趨勢當中。PV Infolink的數據顯示，國內 3.2 毫米的光伏玻璃價格由 2020 年初的人民幣 29 元每平米跌至 6 月底時的人民幣 24元每平米，並大幅上升了 70.8%至 10 月 28 日時的人民幣 41 元每平米。當前的光伏玻璃價格對應國內一線光伏玻璃生產商 55%至 60%的毛利率。
國內於 2020 年的新增光伏裝機預計將介於 35 吉瓦至 40 吉瓦。我們預計國內市場於 2020年的新增光伏裝機將介於 35 吉瓦至 40 吉瓦（2019 年的新增裝機則為 30.1 吉瓦）。由於國內於 2020 年前 9 個月的新增光伏裝機僅為 17.7 吉瓦，我們預計 2020 年 4 季度的光伏裝機將進一步加快。
鑑於光伏玻璃價格的快速上升，我們上調了盈利預測。我們預計信義光能的光伏玻璃綜合平均價格於 2020 至 2022 年間將分別為人民幣 35.6 元每平米/ 人民幣 35.1 元每平米/ 人民幣 34.7 元每平米。因此，我們預計公司於 2020 年至 2022 年的光伏玻璃板塊毛利率將分別達到 45.6%/ 46.7%/ 46.8%。我們經調整的 2020 至 2022 年的每股盈利預測分別為0.495 港元 / 0.627 港元 / 0.752 港元。
我們維持“買入”的評級並進一步上調目標價至 15.70 港元。我們的新目標價相當於 31.7 倍 / 25.0 倍 / 20.8 倍 2020 至 2022 年市盈率或 7.0 倍 / 6.1 倍 / 5.3 倍 2020 至 2022 年市淨率。
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