中国人民保险集团(01339.HK)：寿险改革趋势向好，财险负面影响减弱，维持“增持”评级，目标价3.94港元
机构：国泰君安
评级：增持
目标价：3.94港元
本报告导读：
前三季度寿险业务主动调整结构使得保费规模小幅下降，预计公司聚焦高价值的战略将有利于 NBV提升；财险业务两大短期因素导致综合成本率小幅上升，维持增持。
摘要：
维持“增持”评级，维持目标价 3.94港元/股，对应2020年 P/B为 0.75倍：受制于19年所得税减免高基数影响，公司2020年前三季度归母净利润21,368亿元，同比下降 12.3%，扣除所得税因素，当期税前利润 308.89 亿元，同比提升 7.8%，符合市场预期。考虑到当前车险综合改革以实施，短期财险公司保费充足度将明显下降，下调 2020-2022年EPS为0.49(0.52, -6.6%)/0.51(0.53, -4.4%)/0.56(0.57, -2.2%)元。
寿险业务结构主动调整致保费规模小幅下降，预计对 NBV 带来正向贡献：公司前三季度寿险原保险保费收入 821.17 亿元，同比下降5.3%，预计主要为寿险转型背景下主动调整业务节奏所致。从产品结构来看，公司前三季度新单中期交首年保费占比为 43%，同比提升 7个百分点，而价值贡献较低的趸交及短期险占比下降至 56%，我们认为，公司主动调整业务结构、聚焦高价值保单的销售战略将有利于长期可持续发展，预计对NBV 带来正向贡献。
信保业务赔付增加及车险综改前加大费用投入致综合成本率小幅上升：2020年前三季度财险综合成本率 98.4%，同比提升 0.5pt，符合市场预期，预计主要两大原因：1）2019 年存续的低质量信保业务尚有部分未完成处置，短期仍造成赔付压力。考虑到公司当前正大幅压缩信保业务规模，前三季度信保同比下降 71.2%，仅存 52.03 亿元，预计后续信保对综合成本率的负面影响将大幅减弱。 2） 三季度面临车险综合改革新老切换，改革前夕各家公司为抢占客户资源总体上加大费用投入，预计短期车险费用率明显提升，但随着当前车险综合改革的顺利实施，后续财险公司为实现承保盈利预计将大幅压缩费用使用，后续这一压制综合成本率的短期因素将消除。
催化剂：渠道人力量质齐升。
风险提示：寿险转型不及预期；车险综合改革后赔付率高于预期；开门红不及预期。
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