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《大行报告》花旗下调中国今年GDP增长预测至2.1% 料明年增长8.2%
阿思达克 10-28 14:41
花旗发表报告指,中国经济增长由今年第二季的按年升3.2%,加快至第三季的按年升4.9%,但仍逊於预期。该行下调中国今年第四季经济增长预测0.4个百分点至5.9%,今年全年预测因而由原来估计的按年增长2.4%,降至按年增长2.1%,明年增长则料为8.2%。

花旗又继续预期人民银行在今年第四季会下调中期借贷便利利率20个基点,至於人民币的升值预期估计在今年余下时间仍在。

亚洲经济方面,该行认为虽然中国经济反弹为亚洲区的贸易带来一定动力,但因高度依赖服务业、劳动市场错配、边境长期关闭,及疫情反弹等原因,除台湾及越南外的亚洲区内国家在经济上仍然明显落後。另外,由於欧洲及美国的疫情再起,中国以外的亚洲出口的强劲势头在今年年底至明年初或会放慢。

花旗认为,疫苗的出现料将可令局面改变,包括带来更广泛的经济收益,及使受累疫情的亚洲区内落後国家赶上。假设目前在研发上领先的疫苗有效,该行预期亚太区已发展经济体包括澳洲、纽西兰、日本、香港、南韩、新加坡及台湾,在明年下半年将有可能通过疫苗接种,有效地实现某种群体免疫,而中国在2022年初前料难以达至群体免疫,其他人口众多的亚洲新兴经济体则估计需待至2022年的上半年。

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