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植耀辉: 疫情衍生另类商机 港股续反覆靠稳
阿思达克 10-28 11:32
耀才证券研究部总监植耀辉称,对笔者来说,过去两星期相当忙碌,「巨无霸」蚂蚁集团(06688.HK)招股,其招股文件内有大量资讯值得细阅,笔者因此亦花了不少时间去研究其业务以至了解整个行业生态;另一单则是国泰航空(00293.HK)业务重组加裁员消息。面对疫情所带来的冲击,全球航空业面对的挑战史无前例;但其实其他行业亦面对巨大打击,当中邮轮业所受到影响便可能有过之而无不及。笔者上周便看到一幅颇震撼的相片。该相片摄於土耳其Aliaga拆船厂,从相中所见,多架邮轮正准备「拆骨」,部分仍能清楚看到游乐设施。对邮轮公司来说,非不得已亦不会考虑「拆船」,皆因如果邮轮年期不长,翻新是最佳选择,又或可考虑将船转卖给其它较细规模之邮轮公司。只是行业复苏路仍遥遥无期,但在维护与防疫成本百上加斤的环境下,难找卖家之余翻新亦不符效益,「拆骨」是最无奈及较可取之方法。

不过对拆船厂而言却是忙得不可开交,皆因要将一只邮轮解体,所需时间便至少半年,大量拆骨订单意味「有排忙」,在经济不景气下成为逆市奇葩;另外,由於邮轮内部有不少有用设施,包括电子产品及仪器、家私以至装饰物等,所以在拆船时会先将相关东西拆走,并再转卖给附近市集内之商铺,亦因此产生了不少新商机。

惟疫情一日未能好好控制,邮轮及航空业的经营环境仍会相当严峻。执笔之时欧美疫情又再度恶化,於美国上市之相关股份如皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL.US)及嘉年华(CCL.US)便跌近一成,股价年初至今亦大跌超过五成。恐怕股价暂能有憧憬矣!

亦一定要跟进最新港股部署。恒指昨日下跌131点,主要是受中资股拖累,而腾讯(00700.HK)及汇控(00005.HK)股价急升则限制大市跌幅。不过随着美国总统大选以及季绩期因素,预期金融市场会变得更为波动,事实上美股周一(26日)便一度大跌近千点,某程度上反映投资者在现水平宁愿锁定利润再作部署。诺贝尔奖得主,同时亦是耶鲁大学教授及经济学家Robert Shiller於一篇文章中提到,疫情及大选之状况令投资者对市场崩溃(Crash)之担忧达到多年最高,但股市却处於很高水平。这波动之组合虽不等於崩溃马上出现,但发生事故的风险相对较高─这该是要小心谨慎的时候了。因此後市不宜太掉以轻心。另外,内地五中全会消息亦会对後市会有更多启示,相信大市会继续维持24,000至25,000点区间上落。

(笔者为证监会持牌人,并未持有相关股份)~

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