植耀輝: 疫情衍生另類商機 港股續反覆靠穩
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,對筆者來說,過去兩星期相當忙碌,「巨無霸」螞蟻集團(06688.HK)招股,其招股文件內有大量資訊值得細閱,筆者因此亦花了不少時間去研究其業務以至了解整個行業生態;另一單則是國泰航空(00293.HK)業務重組加裁員消息。面對疫情所帶來的衝擊,全球航空業面對的挑戰史無前例;但其實其他行業亦面對巨大打擊,當中郵輪業所受到影響便可能有過之而無不及。筆者上周便看到一幅頗震撼的相片。該相片攝於土耳其Aliaga拆船廠,從相中所見,多架郵輪正準備「拆骨」,部分仍能清楚看到遊樂設施。對郵輪公司來說,非不得已亦不會考慮「拆船」,皆因如果郵輪年期不長,翻新是最佳選擇,又或可考慮將船轉賣給其它較細規模之郵輪公司。只是行業復甦路仍遙遙無期,但在維護與防疫成本百上加斤的環境下,難找賣家之餘翻新亦不符效益,「拆骨」是最無奈及較可取之方法。
不過對拆船廠而言卻是忙得不可開交,皆因要將一隻郵輪解體,所需時間便至少半年,大量拆骨訂單意味「有排忙」,在經濟不景氣下成為逆市奇葩;另外,由於郵輪內部有不少有用設施,包括電子產品及儀器、傢俬以至裝飾物等,所以在拆船時會先將相關東西拆走,並再轉賣給附近市集內之商舖,亦因此產生了不少新商機。
惟疫情一日未能好好控制,郵輪及航空業的經營環境仍會相當嚴峻。執筆之時歐美疫情又再度惡化,於美國上市之相關股份如皇家加勒比郵輪(RCL.US)及嘉年華(CCL.US)便跌近一成,股價年初至今亦大跌超過五成。恐怕股價暫能有憧憬矣!
亦一定要跟進最新港股部署。恆指昨日下跌131點,主要是受中資股拖累,而騰訊(00700.HK)及匯控(00005.HK)股價急升則限制大市跌幅。不過隨著美國總統大選以及季績期因素,預期金融市場會變得更為波動,事實上美股周一(26日)便一度大跌近千點,某程度上反映投資者在現水平寧願鎖定利潤再作部署。諾貝爾獎得主,同時亦是耶魯大學教授及經濟學家Robert Shiller於一篇文章中提到,疫情及大選之狀況令投資者對市場崩潰(Crash)之擔憂達到多年最高,但股市卻處於很高水平。這波動之組合雖不等於崩潰馬上出現,但發生事故的風險相對較高─這該是要小心謹慎的時候了。因此後市不宜太掉以輕心。另外,內地五中全會消息亦會對後市會有更多啟示,相信大市會繼續維持24,000至25,000點區間上落。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,並未持有相關股份)~
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