《大行報告》中金:潤泥(01313.HK)季績遠超預期 兩廣區域水泥價格有望再攀高峰
中金發表報告指,潤泥(01313.HK)公布今年第三季業績,營收按年增長10.9%至103.2億元,淨利潤按年上升58%至32億元,大幅超出市場和該行預期,主因公司聯營、合營企業利潤貢獻以及稅收減免超預期。
該行表示,集團季度銷量盈利均強勁,發貨強勁且銷量強勢。雖然第三季多雨影響兩廣需求,公司發貨量仍然按年增長強勁,水泥熟料銷量按年增長13.5%,按季僅跌4%至2,469萬噸。另外,第三季水泥加熟料價格按年增長1.9%、按季跌5.8%至345元,受益於人民幣升值,淡季按季跌幅窄於行業;其中因部分原材料上漲以及代銷水泥成本較高,第三季噸成本按年升2.2%至197元每噸。不過受益於公司有效控費,帶動公司當季噸費用按季下降7.5元至41元。
中金預期,由於需求旺盛,今年第四季價格有望再攀新高。而廣東颱風天氣結束後,水泥需求迅速恢復,行業基本達到產銷平衡,珠三角、粵西水泥價格大幅提漲每噸30元,現在廣州時點價格已超去年同期。該行看好第四季在基建項目逐步落地、項目趕工下,兩廣區域水泥價格有望再攀高峰,公司第四季有望量價齊升,全年盈利存超預期空間。
該行上調潤泥今明兩年每股盈利預測各3.2%,至分別1.45元及1.47元,維持股份「跑贏行業」評級及目標價13.25元。
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